Ask me any stats question you'd like!
This season has been incredible to watch so far. Here's who's averaging the most DraftKings points per game this season:
sudolawyer asked: How do you find value in players. People with the most points are the most expensive -- any tips for finding good value out there? Would love to see a graph about that. Also, my buddy wants to join. How can he get access?
Great question, sudolawyer. We also have Salaries, and a column called "Points Per 100 Dollars." This column will give you a good sense of players who are putting up good numbers as compared to their salary. The below chart shows the top 25 players in average DraftKings Points Per 100 Dollars this season. I also filtered to only include players who played in 10 or more games so far this season, so we minimize the chance of outliers who only played in a couple games.
If you're interesting in getting full data access, just check out our Reddit thread. We'll be posting some beta access codes there that you can share!
statsman asked: So who do you think has the best offense this season?
That's a tough one, statsman! For a simple metric we can look to Offensive Rating, which was "developed by Dean Oliver in his 2004 book Basketball on Paper." Here's a chart of Team's offensive rating so far this season:
We see the Clippers in first, followed by Milkaukee and then Brooklyn. HOWEVER, we all know there was a huge trade a couple weeks ago that may have shifted things alot! So now let's look at some trendlines. Here's a chart showing the trends for the top five teams:
As you can see, the Nets have been trending up since the trade, and just looking at the trendlines, they've overtaken everyone. So, right now, I'd say it's the Nets.
sudolawyer asked: That last line chart you made is awesome. How did you do that?
Thanks! To make that chart, I just went to "scatterplot" and chose date & team offensive rating. I then picked a trendline to get a better sense of how things are trending. Finally, I grouped by team, because I wanted to compare teams.
You can learn about everything that Pine has to offer on our help page here: https://www.pine-sports.com/help/
BetsMcGee asked: With scores getting higher and higher, how do you think Vegas is adjusting? Should I just keep betting the over?
Great question BetsMcGee, but unfortunately it's not that simple. You're right, scores have definitely been going up year over year...
The problem is, Vegas has been adjusting. Here's how Vegas has set the over/unders so far this year:
You can't do much better than that! That doesn't mean you can't find value though. Take a look at individual games to see if Vegas may be pricing things wrong. For example, @Lnace7 has found a few interesting opportunities when digging into individual teams, how they're scoring this season, and their overall trends.
ChipsnDips asked: I was wondering if we could track player growth and performance as season progresses, or throughout their career. IE - do stars play better basketball later in the season? Do second year lottery picks exhibit more growth on average than 3rd years?
Great question ChipsnDips. Welcome to Pine! So a good single metric to use when trying to get a sense of how a player is doing over time is Game Score. "Game Score was created by John Hollinger to give a rough measure of a player's productivity for a single game." And the best way to track trends over time is to take a look at a scatter plot with a trendline. Below, I took a look at the Game Score of the 2019-2020 season MVP and Rookie of the Year.
As you can see, early in the season, Giannis's Game Score was much higher than Ja Morant's but things got a lot closer by the end of the season. Right now, we don't have stats on years in the league for players, but we'll definitely look out for that. If there are players you have your eye on, I think looking at a scatter plot of Date by Game Score with a trendline is the way to go.
That’s all the time I have this time around, thanks for all the interesting questions! Good luck everyone!
Ask me any stats question you'd like!
This season has been incredible to watch so far. Here's who's averaging the most DraftKings points per game this season:
sudolawyer asked: How do you find value in players. People with the most points are the most expensive -- any tips for finding good value out there? Would love to see a graph about that. Also, my buddy wants to join. How can he get access?
Great question, sudolawyer. We also have Salaries, and a column called "Points Per 100 Dollars." This column will give you a good sense of players who are putting up good numbers as compared to their salary. The below chart shows the top 25 players in average DraftKings Points Per 100 Dollars this season. I also filtered to only include players who played in 10 or more games so far this season, so we minimize the chance of outliers who only played in a couple games.
If you're interesting in getting full data access, just check out our Reddit thread. We'll be posting some beta access codes there that you can share!
statsman asked: So who do you think has the best offense this season?
That's a tough one, statsman! For a simple metric we can look to Offensive Rating, which was "developed by Dean Oliver in his 2004 book Basketball on Paper." Here's a chart of Team's offensive rating so far this season:
We see the Clippers in first, followed by Milkaukee and then Brooklyn. HOWEVER, we all know there was a huge trade a couple weeks ago that may have shifted things alot! So now let's look at some trendlines. Here's a chart showing the trends for the top five teams:
As you can see, the Nets have been trending up since the trade, and just looking at the trendlines, they've overtaken everyone. So, right now, I'd say it's the Nets.
sudolawyer asked: That last line chart you made is awesome. How did you do that?
Thanks! To make that chart, I just went to "scatterplot" and chose date & team offensive rating. I then picked a trendline to get a better sense of how things are trending. Finally, I grouped by team, because I wanted to compare teams.
You can learn about everything that Pine has to offer on our help page here: https://www.pine-sports.com/help/
BetsMcGee asked: With scores getting higher and higher, how do you think Vegas is adjusting? Should I just keep betting the over?
Great question BetsMcGee, but unfortunately it's not that simple. You're right, scores have definitely been going up year over year...
The problem is, Vegas has been adjusting. Here's how Vegas has set the over/unders so far this year:
You can't do much better than that! That doesn't mean you can't find value though. Take a look at individual games to see if Vegas may be pricing things wrong. For example, @Lnace7 has found a few interesting opportunities when digging into individual teams, how they're scoring this season, and their overall trends.
ChipsnDips asked: I was wondering if we could track player growth and performance as season progresses, or throughout their career. IE - do stars play better basketball later in the season? Do second year lottery picks exhibit more growth on average than 3rd years?
Great question ChipsnDips. Welcome to Pine! So a good single metric to use when trying to get a sense of how a player is doing over time is Game Score. "Game Score was created by John Hollinger to give a rough measure of a player's productivity for a single game." And the best way to track trends over time is to take a look at a scatter plot with a trendline. Below, I took a look at the Game Score of the 2019-2020 season MVP and Rookie of the Year.
As you can see, early in the season, Giannis's Game Score was much higher than Ja Morant's but things got a lot closer by the end of the season. Right now, we don't have stats on years in the league for players, but we'll definitely look out for that. If there are players you have your eye on, I think looking at a scatter plot of Date by Game Score with a trendline is the way to go.
That’s all the time I have this time around, thanks for all the interesting questions! Good luck everyone!
No need to sift through the clutter.
Just use the prop cheatsheet.
Awesome stuff! Here's a question: How do you find value in players. People with the most points are the most expensive -- any tips for finding good value out there? Would love to see a graph about that.
Also, my buddy wants to join. How can he get access?
Really cool! So who do you think has the best offense this season?
@PineHelp That last line chart you made is awesome. How did you do that?
Interesting info on the best offenses. So I like to make some bets. With scores getting higher and higher, how do you think Vegas is adjusting? Should I just keep betting the over?
Loving the content so far. I was wondering if we could track player growth and performance as season progresses, or throughout their career. IE - do stars play better basketball later in the season? Do second year lottery picks exhibit more growth on average than 3rd years? I remember reading somewhere that the best value fantasy draft picks (outperforming ADP) were second and third year players. It would be great to confirm and see other trends that can be applied for bargain hunting.
Thanks!