NBA ECF Game 1: Celtics vs. Heat
Marcus Smart OVER 22.5Points+ Rebounds + Assists -128
Smart is coming off a strong finish in that MIL series despite his turnovers late in Game 6. He finished with a +/- of +11 and +18 over the last 2 and had RA of 12 and 17 to close out the series. I take that as a sign of him getting healthier. He’s averaging 10 potential APG and 6.2 APG for the entire post season, which is on par with his regular season performance vs the Heat in 2022. Unlike the Bucks, the Heat have the ability to switch freely on defense with Oladipo/Bam/Strus/Tucker/Butler, but they do have liabilities in Herro and Duncan Robinson (should he play) A big stat that stands out to me was the Celtics ability to score in transition vs the Heat in their March showdown, where they were +7. Expect the Celtics to get out and run early, pushing the pace. For Smart, he should see more opportunities for rebounds in this series as both teams lack a dominant rebounder (like Giannis). Smart had rebounding performances of 5,4,2 against Miami in the regular season, but we should see a minutes increase for Smart and no Kyle Lowry will help his case. The Heat backcourt lacks a defender the caliber of Jrue Holiday, so I expect Marcus Smart to see a USG uptick from the Conference Semifinals and more on par with what we saw in Round 1 vs the Nets. He's hit this in 6 of the L 10 with a favorable matchup for G1.
Marcus Smart OVER 22.5Points+ Rebounds + Assists -128
Smart is coming off a strong finish in that MIL series despite his turnovers late in Game 6. He finished with a +/- of +11 and +18 over the last 2 and had RA of 12 and 17 to close out the series. I take that as a sign of him getting healthier. He’s averaging 10 potential APG and 6.2 APG for the entire post season, which is on par with his regular season performance vs the Heat in 2022. Unlike the Bucks, the Heat have the ability to switch freely on defense with Oladipo/Bam/Strus/Tucker/Butler, but they do have liabilities in Herro and Duncan Robinson (should he play) A big stat that stands out to me was the Celtics ability to score in transition vs the Heat in their March showdown, where they were +7. Expect the Celtics to get out and run early, pushing the pace. For Smart, he should see more opportunities for rebounds in this series as both teams lack a dominant rebounder (like Giannis). Smart had rebounding performances of 5,4,2 against Miami in the regular season, but we should see a minutes increase for Smart and no Kyle Lowry will help his case. The Heat backcourt lacks a defender the caliber of Jrue Holiday, so I expect Marcus Smart to see a USG uptick from the Conference Semifinals and more on par with what we saw in Round 1 vs the Nets. He's hit this in 6 of the L 10 with a favorable matchup for G1.
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