WCF: Game 1 Mavericks vs. Warriors
Jordan Poole OVER 3.5 Assists -122
Poole’s assist numbers took a dive in the last 2 games of the MEM series (5.5 Potential) and I attribute that to the transformation Memphis made when Ja went out of the lineup. They become a completely different team defensively. Previously, he was averaging 9.2 potential assists for the whole series, so a big difference when comparing side by side. Pool is averaging 8.6 potential assists for the entire post season, and I think he numbers in this series will come closer to that figure, so jumping on this 3.5 line while it’s that low. Poole’s AST lines in the previous series were around 4.5 so the last 2 games vs MEM has really impacted this number. He's hit this in 6/11 post season games and flirted with it in 9/11.
Let’s look at the matchup: The Warriors do a great job of moving the ball and shy away from 1 on 1 offense; this will make the Dallas team really work on the defensive end. Despite an all-time defensive performance against the Suns, the highest rated defensive player on the Mavs is Dwight Powell (103.8 Net Rating). The Warriors are well rested and Poole should be locked in for 30+min assuming it is not a blowout. His USG has been a steady 22%+ the entire post season outside of one game. I've got Poole pegged at 5 assists while Steph makes this defense run ragged.
Jordan Poole OVER 3.5 Assists -122
Poole’s assist numbers took a dive in the last 2 games of the MEM series (5.5 Potential) and I attribute that to the transformation Memphis made when Ja went out of the lineup. They become a completely different team defensively. Previously, he was averaging 9.2 potential assists for the whole series, so a big difference when comparing side by side. Pool is averaging 8.6 potential assists for the entire post season, and I think he numbers in this series will come closer to that figure, so jumping on this 3.5 line while it’s that low. Poole’s AST lines in the previous series were around 4.5 so the last 2 games vs MEM has really impacted this number. He's hit this in 6/11 post season games and flirted with it in 9/11.
Let’s look at the matchup: The Warriors do a great job of moving the ball and shy away from 1 on 1 offense; this will make the Dallas team really work on the defensive end. Despite an all-time defensive performance against the Suns, the highest rated defensive player on the Mavs is Dwight Powell (103.8 Net Rating). The Warriors are well rested and Poole should be locked in for 30+min assuming it is not a blowout. His USG has been a steady 22%+ the entire post season outside of one game. I've got Poole pegged at 5 assists while Steph makes this defense run ragged.
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