1U Carlos Hernandez under 3.5 K's -128. Odds available on Fanduel at time of publishing.
The Royals 3rd year righty from Venezuela struggled mightily to end the season last year, and it has unfortunately carried over into 2022 for him. Over the span of his last 10 starts made (6 of them being this year) Hernandez is under this 3.5 line in 9 of 10, with his only over landing on 4 K's vs Seattle. During the course of this 10 game span, Hernandez has thrown 828 pitches spanning 47.2 Innings pitched, resulting in only 21 punch outs and 28 walks. He averages a strikeout every 39.4 pitches during this stretch.
This season alone, Hernandez is sporting a 9.11 ERA (6.25 xERA is bottom 8th percentile), with a 2.03 WHIP. His xBA, xSLG, and xWOBA are all bottom 8 percentile or worse, and his barrel rate is bottom 25th percentile. Not generating many swings and misses with just a 33rd percentile whiff rate and 14th percentile chase rate. Even when he does draw chases, his chase contact rate is 8.6% higher than league average. Earlier in the season I noticed a sharp decrease in spin rate and velocity for Hernandez and that seems to be consistent start to start. He throws first pitch strikes and strikes in general at a below league average rate, which increases the pitch count for him. His movement on all of his pitches, both vertically and horizontally have fallen to league average or worse levels, and for a pitcher with decreased velocity that spells major trouble long term.
Despite the small number of 3.5, White Sox bats have held 10 of the last 18 right handed starters they have faced under this number. Overall they have just a 19.2% K rate vs RHP on the season which ranks 3rd best in baseball. Looking strikeouts account for the 2nd lowest % of any teams strikeouts as Chicago is a free swinging team. White Sox swing at the 4th highest % of pitches in the zone, while having the 6th best zone contact rate. They have the 8th best chase contact rate which pairs well with Hernandez' inability to miss bats on chases. Overall, they swing the bat at the 2nd highest rate in baseball with the 12th lowest whiff rate, sitting below league average. Love this spot today fading Hernandez.
1U Carlos Hernandez under 3.5 K's -128. Odds available on Fanduel at time of publishing.
The Royals 3rd year righty from Venezuela struggled mightily to end the season last year, and it has unfortunately carried over into 2022 for him. Over the span of his last 10 starts made (6 of them being this year) Hernandez is under this 3.5 line in 9 of 10, with his only over landing on 4 K's vs Seattle. During the course of this 10 game span, Hernandez has thrown 828 pitches spanning 47.2 Innings pitched, resulting in only 21 punch outs and 28 walks. He averages a strikeout every 39.4 pitches during this stretch.
This season alone, Hernandez is sporting a 9.11 ERA (6.25 xERA is bottom 8th percentile), with a 2.03 WHIP. His xBA, xSLG, and xWOBA are all bottom 8 percentile or worse, and his barrel rate is bottom 25th percentile. Not generating many swings and misses with just a 33rd percentile whiff rate and 14th percentile chase rate. Even when he does draw chases, his chase contact rate is 8.6% higher than league average. Earlier in the season I noticed a sharp decrease in spin rate and velocity for Hernandez and that seems to be consistent start to start. He throws first pitch strikes and strikes in general at a below league average rate, which increases the pitch count for him. His movement on all of his pitches, both vertically and horizontally have fallen to league average or worse levels, and for a pitcher with decreased velocity that spells major trouble long term.
Despite the small number of 3.5, White Sox bats have held 10 of the last 18 right handed starters they have faced under this number. Overall they have just a 19.2% K rate vs RHP on the season which ranks 3rd best in baseball. Looking strikeouts account for the 2nd lowest % of any teams strikeouts as Chicago is a free swinging team. White Sox swing at the 4th highest % of pitches in the zone, while having the 6th best zone contact rate. They have the 8th best chase contact rate which pairs well with Hernandez' inability to miss bats on chases. Overall, they swing the bat at the 2nd highest rate in baseball with the 12th lowest whiff rate, sitting below league average. Love this spot today fading Hernandez.
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