Game 5 WCF: Mavericks vs. Warriors
Spencer Dinwiddie OVER 18.5 PRA -111
When I look at this series, I noticed a big difference for Dinwiddie between games 1+2 vs 3+4. In Games 1+2, he averaged 22.5Min and 14.5PRA with a plus/minus of -29. If we look at games 3+4, we see 30.5MPG and 25PRA with a plus/minus of +10. This is practically two different players and Jason Kidd has realized that Dinwiddie can be more than just a scorer. In Game 4, Dinwiddie exploded for 8 assists and was a key facilitator in an offense that caught fire, shooting 46% from 3. Now, I view this bet two ways: If DAL remains hot from 3, Dinwiddie should see 4-6 assists and he can easily pour in 12-14 points. If DAL goes cold and falls behind early, Dinwiddie will be forced to take on a scoring role and can hit this in points alone, similar to Game 3 and partially Game 1. I like the flexibility this offer considering this game can go both ways; regardless of the outcome, I expect Dinwiddie on the floor tonight for 30+min and when he passes that threshold, he’s hit this line in 4/5.
Spencer Dinwiddie OVER 18.5 PRA -111
When I look at this series, I noticed a big difference for Dinwiddie between games 1+2 vs 3+4. In Games 1+2, he averaged 22.5Min and 14.5PRA with a plus/minus of -29. If we look at games 3+4, we see 30.5MPG and 25PRA with a plus/minus of +10. This is practically two different players and Jason Kidd has realized that Dinwiddie can be more than just a scorer. In Game 4, Dinwiddie exploded for 8 assists and was a key facilitator in an offense that caught fire, shooting 46% from 3. Now, I view this bet two ways: If DAL remains hot from 3, Dinwiddie should see 4-6 assists and he can easily pour in 12-14 points. If DAL goes cold and falls behind early, Dinwiddie will be forced to take on a scoring role and can hit this in points alone, similar to Game 3 and partially Game 1. I like the flexibility this offer considering this game can go both ways; regardless of the outcome, I expect Dinwiddie on the floor tonight for 30+min and when he passes that threshold, he’s hit this line in 4/5.
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