Todays MLB Player Prop takes us to the Nationals vs Phillies game (4.30 PM EST start). I will be in attendance today, and the Nationals are 1-0 with me at the stadium, very important statistic to keep in mind today. 

Bryce Harper o1.5 TB’s -125 DK

Bryce Harper is absolutely one of my favorite targets of the day. Despite the boo’s and heckling he receives at Nationals park, he loves hitting here. Harper is one of the best hitters in baseball, currently batting .326 (7th) with 15 HR and 48 RBI’s. Harper is coming into this game with 1+ Hit in 14 of his last 16 games, and batting .333 vs RHP & .404 over his last 15 games. While all that's fun, what I really like the most is his matchup against Josiah Gray. 

Gray has been pitching pretty well recently and I’ve noticed an increase in breaking balls, bringing his season average to around 45% Fastballs & 51% Slider/Curveball. Harper happens to be one of the best off-speed hitters in baseball, currently batting .405 vs Sliders and .464 vs Curveballs. Those are some pretty insane numbers, but guess what? Harper is also hitting .355 vs the pitch he throws the other 45% of the time (4-seamer). Gray is a strikeout/flyball pitcher that has definitely struggled against the Longball this season giving up 14 Home Runs. Harper is Slugging over .700 against 3 of his pitches. 

Nationals park is playing extremely small right now with the warm summer weather. Nationals have given up 17 HR’s in their last 5 games, that's an insane mark that I definitely think Harper will add onto today. I'm risking 1 unit on TB's and targeting him in hit parlays along with Run Scored at -160 (great parlay piece), and Home Run at +280.