When breaking down MLB slates, you find trends that you like to attack. Whether that be the Braves vs Lefties or Rodon at home, the trend I've been cashing has been taking any team vs Patrick Corbin.
Our Pine Prop of the Day is going to be Patrick Corbin over 5.5 Hits allowed -105.
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Patrick Corbin has actually allowed this number in 9 of last 10 starts. His numbers on the surface are bad, 6.6 ERA/1.79 WHIP, but the underlying numbers make his terrible year so far, so much worse. Corbin has a four pitch mix (SI/SL/4S/CH) out of those 4 pitches, 3 of them have a batting average against of at least .315! Also, he has a sky high 44 percent hard hit rate and a .573 expected slugging percentage against him so far, which ranks in bottom 3% of league. Looking like about 80 degrees at first pitch as well, which should favor hitters today too.
The Pirates: Obviously one of the worst hitting teams in baseball, but here's why I don't think it matters facing off with Corbin. Corbin has a 17.7% K rate so far this season and only 1 pitch over a 16% put away percentage. On top of that, with the warm weather, low swing and miss rate and a pitcher allowing .300 + batting average to hitters from both sides of plate, I think we see the Young Bucs hitters get us to the 6 hit mark.
When breaking down MLB slates, you find trends that you like to attack. Whether that be the Braves vs Lefties or Rodon at home, the trend I've been cashing has been taking any team vs Patrick Corbin.
Our Pine Prop of the Day is going to be Patrick Corbin over 5.5 Hits allowed -105.
Patrick Corbin has actually allowed this number in 9 of last 10 starts. His numbers on the surface are bad, 6.6 ERA/1.79 WHIP, but the underlying numbers make his terrible year so far, so much worse. Corbin has a four pitch mix (SI/SL/4S/CH) out of those 4 pitches, 3 of them have a batting average against of at least .315! Also, he has a sky high 44 percent hard hit rate and a .573 expected slugging percentage against him so far, which ranks in bottom 3% of league. Looking like about 80 degrees at first pitch as well, which should favor hitters today too.
The Pirates: Obviously one of the worst hitting teams in baseball, but here's why I don't think it matters facing off with Corbin. Corbin has a 17.7% K rate so far this season and only 1 pitch over a 16% put away percentage. On top of that, with the warm weather, low swing and miss rate and a pitcher allowing .300 + batting average to hitters from both sides of plate, I think we see the Young Bucs hitters get us to the 6 hit mark.
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