The Houston Astros will be at home tonight to take on the Los Angeles Angels who will be sending Michael Lorenzen to the mound to battle the Astros lineup. Yordan Alvarez has been having a monster season and has been crushing RHP this season, I am going to backing his total bases prop, which I am going to breakdown below.

Alvarez is hitting an absurd .346 and SLG% .755 against RHP this season. He has seen more success hitting on the road, but his numbers at home are still very good. It should also be noted that Alvarez seems to prefer hitting at night, where he has a .340 batting average as opposed to a .276 average during day games. 

Michael Lorenzen, has a 4 pitch arsenal, Sinker, Fastball, Slider & Change-up. He doesn't produce many swings and misses, and is very average in most statcast metrics. Alvarez has had a ton of success against the Fastball, Change up, Slider combo this season.

Alvarez has only had 3 career at-bats vs. Lorenzen and has gone 2/3 with a single & a home run, he has been on a tear in June batting .418 and has a .835 SLG%. I like this run to continue tonight. 

Official Pick: Yordan Alvarez o1.5 Total Bases (+110) - Risk: 1.00u