I just read a few articles and did some poking around in Explore+ to make a SGP on DK utilizing Alternate totals and Alternate Spreads to make a 2-legger.

Trend here ⬇️

The trend I’m referring to is that CAR and SF both are coming in under the unders. SF is 0-4 O/U and CAR is 1-3 O/U.

That’s a combined record of 1-7 O/U. Now. I will say that I know the O/U’s change based on the team, and the week, and this season’s data. The fact that they’re 1-7 O/U doesn’t mean much going forward this week, or does it? It’s hard to deny that SF’s defense has been doing very well so far only allowing teams around the low 10’s on average this season so far. CAR is in the low 20’s. To me, this looks like a good game to hit the under on. But books are catching on, the O/U at the time of writing this is 38.5. Too low for me. I took an alternate total of 43.5 and drank some of the juice on it.

Second trend for these two teams is that both of these teams aren’t doing well covering the spread. SF is 2-2 ATS and CAR is 1-3 ATS. To me, this says take SF at a slightly lower spread and drink some more juice, but lay them together to help the odds. -6.5 seems kind of high to me, and I don’t think that’s giving CAR enough credit. I am taking -3.5, due mostly to the fact that the avg final spread for a CAR game is around -2 (taking the total win/lose margin and dividing by number of games),  and the average spread for SF is around +6. 6+(-2)=4. A safer option would be CAR +8.5, if you think about it the other way and want a slightly safer option if you’re not sure who will end up winning, but I have faith in this SF team.

I could be thinking about this whole entire thing completely wrong, but I will monitor this line throughout the week and see what it changes to as the week goes on and people start focusing on these week 5 games.

Thanks for reading, and good luck on your bets!