Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Over 9.5 Pts (Underdog)
He has gone over this mark in seven out of ten games this season and faces the Celtics who allow the 2nd most points per 48 minutes to Shooting Guards. He is averaging 11.7 points per game and the Celtics allow the 4th most above the break threes and 13th most corner threes to guards this year, which is where 54% of his shots come from. He is not a focal point for a defense to focus on and he can get some nice looks tonight. This is projected to be a high scoring game with Vegas giving this game a point total of 231. Pope has a 32% frequency of spot up shooting in the 99th percentile, while the Celtics are 8th worst versus spot up shooters with a 24% percentile (bad). He is averaging 1.75 points per possession which is 2nd best for spot up shooters.
Klay Thompson Under 3.5 3pt Made
Cleveland allows the least three pointers made per 48 minutes to Shooting Guards this season. He has gone over this line in only four out of nine games this season. 51% of his shots come from above the break three and Cleveland allows the 4th least from there. Cleveland allows the 13th least catch & shoot threes along with 11th least pullup threes. Cleveland also has the third best defensive efficiency this year, along with good length, which can create problems for the streaky shooter.
Shai Gilgeous Alexander Under 29.5 Pts (ParlayPlay)
He has been on a tear this season, but today I am projecting him to slow down (at least for today). we all know how much he can get to the rim as he averages the most drives per game, but Toronto has the 8th best Pick & Roll handler defense, being in the 72% percentile and 7.7 points of his points come from these play types. Toronto also is 8th best in points in the paint allowed, and when you filter it specifically to guards, they allow the least amount of field goals made in the restricted area and least amount of field goals made in the paint (non-restricted area). Toronto plays at a bottom 10 pace and can control the game. Toronto is 6th best in defensive efficiency and their defense on Shai will be key to winning this game confidently. This game is also the lowest projected point total with Vegas giving it a total of 219 points.
Ja Morant Under 30.5 Pts
Just like Shai, Morant also likes to drive to the rim and get his points there averaging 14.5 points from Pick & Roll handler plays, but the Timberwolves defend it the 4th best this season, being in the 89.7% percentile. Timberwolves are 10th best in points allowed per 48 minutes to Point Guards. 70% of his points come from the restricted area and paint (non-restricted area), while the Timberwolves defend those areas the 12th & 10th best this season versus guards. He has gone over in five out of eleven game this season, and today I am projecting an under.
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Over 9.5 Pts (Underdog)
He has gone over this mark in seven out of ten games this season and faces the Celtics who allow the 2nd most points per 48 minutes to Shooting Guards. He is averaging 11.7 points per game and the Celtics allow the 4th most above the break threes and 13th most corner threes to guards this year, which is where 54% of his shots come from. He is not a focal point for a defense to focus on and he can get some nice looks tonight. This is projected to be a high scoring game with Vegas giving this game a point total of 231. Pope has a 32% frequency of spot up shooting in the 99th percentile, while the Celtics are 8th worst versus spot up shooters with a 24% percentile (bad). He is averaging 1.75 points per possession which is 2nd best for spot up shooters.
Klay Thompson Under 3.5 3pt Made
Cleveland allows the least three pointers made per 48 minutes to Shooting Guards this season. He has gone over this line in only four out of nine games this season. 51% of his shots come from above the break three and Cleveland allows the 4th least from there. Cleveland allows the 13th least catch & shoot threes along with 11th least pullup threes. Cleveland also has the third best defensive efficiency this year, along with good length, which can create problems for the streaky shooter.
Shai Gilgeous Alexander Under 29.5 Pts (ParlayPlay)
He has been on a tear this season, but today I am projecting him to slow down (at least for today). we all know how much he can get to the rim as he averages the most drives per game, but Toronto has the 8th best Pick & Roll handler defense, being in the 72% percentile and 7.7 points of his points come from these play types. Toronto also is 8th best in points in the paint allowed, and when you filter it specifically to guards, they allow the least amount of field goals made in the restricted area and least amount of field goals made in the paint (non-restricted area). Toronto plays at a bottom 10 pace and can control the game. Toronto is 6th best in defensive efficiency and their defense on Shai will be key to winning this game confidently. This game is also the lowest projected point total with Vegas giving it a total of 219 points.
Ja Morant Under 30.5 Pts
Just like Shai, Morant also likes to drive to the rim and get his points there averaging 14.5 points from Pick & Roll handler plays, but the Timberwolves defend it the 4th best this season, being in the 89.7% percentile. Timberwolves are 10th best in points allowed per 48 minutes to Point Guards. 70% of his points come from the restricted area and paint (non-restricted area), while the Timberwolves defend those areas the 12th & 10th best this season versus guards. He has gone over in five out of eleven game this season, and today I am projecting an under.
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