Miles Sanders Over 13.5 Rush Att
Eagles ran a season low 47 plays last week and he had 12 rushing attempts, and they average 65.1 plays per game, which is 11th highest this season. He still commanded 63% of the rushes last game (other two rb’s combined for 2 carries and hurts for 5 carries). They are still a top 5 team in rushing attempts per game and will continue to feed their running back as he has gone over this line in 6/9 games this season. Eagles are -7 favorites and should have a strong bounce back game this week. They brought in Suh to beef up interior which should help limit teams running on them and will allow their own offense to control the game better.
Darnell Mooney Over 43.5 Rec Yards
I picked this prop last week and he went over. He gets a favorable matchup this week against the Falcons who cannot stop anyone through the air and Mooney is someone who continues to demand a 28% target share and 19% TPRR. He has gone over this line in 6/7 games as this team starts to pass more compared to first 3-4 weeks of the season. He accounts for 36% of the team’s air yards, and Falcons have the 4th worst pass DVOA and allow the most air yards and have the lowest pressure rate, which should allow Fields to be more comfortable in the pocket.
Alvin Kamara Under 63.5 Rush Yards
He has gone under this line in 6/8 games this season and faces a tough Rams run defense who has 4th best run DVOA, best PFF run grade, 6th least yards before contact, 4th least rushing yards per game, and 4th least yards per carry. Kamara is averaging the 5th least yards after contact and 15th worst breakaway percentage (min 46 carries, which is 51 qualified running backs). He also has -4 yards rushing over expectation, which is towards the bottom half in the league (min 55 rushing attempts).
Terry McLaurin Over 59.5 Rec Yards
He has gone over this line in 6/10 games this season, including the last ¾ with Heinicke starting at quarterback. He has faced shadow coverage about six times this season and has gone over this line in every one of those games, and there is a big possibility the rookie Stingley Jr. will shadow him this week, but he has been shadowed already by players such as Jaire, Slay (twice), Gilmore, and Okudah (other corners are much better). Stingley has not been that good in pure coverage this season ranking 108 out of 132 qualified Corners according to PFF. Houston gives up a lot of explosive pass plays and with Terry’s 33%+ air yard share and 20%+ target share (32% with Heinicke last four games), he is in a prime position to boom this week.
Miles Sanders Over 13.5 Rush Att
Eagles ran a season low 47 plays last week and he had 12 rushing attempts, and they average 65.1 plays per game, which is 11th highest this season. He still commanded 63% of the rushes last game (other two rb’s combined for 2 carries and hurts for 5 carries). They are still a top 5 team in rushing attempts per game and will continue to feed their running back as he has gone over this line in 6/9 games this season. Eagles are -7 favorites and should have a strong bounce back game this week. They brought in Suh to beef up interior which should help limit teams running on them and will allow their own offense to control the game better.
Darnell Mooney Over 43.5 Rec Yards
I picked this prop last week and he went over. He gets a favorable matchup this week against the Falcons who cannot stop anyone through the air and Mooney is someone who continues to demand a 28% target share and 19% TPRR. He has gone over this line in 6/7 games as this team starts to pass more compared to first 3-4 weeks of the season. He accounts for 36% of the team’s air yards, and Falcons have the 4th worst pass DVOA and allow the most air yards and have the lowest pressure rate, which should allow Fields to be more comfortable in the pocket.
Alvin Kamara Under 63.5 Rush Yards
He has gone under this line in 6/8 games this season and faces a tough Rams run defense who has 4th best run DVOA, best PFF run grade, 6th least yards before contact, 4th least rushing yards per game, and 4th least yards per carry. Kamara is averaging the 5th least yards after contact and 15th worst breakaway percentage (min 46 carries, which is 51 qualified running backs). He also has -4 yards rushing over expectation, which is towards the bottom half in the league (min 55 rushing attempts).
Terry McLaurin Over 59.5 Rec Yards
He has gone over this line in 6/10 games this season, including the last ¾ with Heinicke starting at quarterback. He has faced shadow coverage about six times this season and has gone over this line in every one of those games, and there is a big possibility the rookie Stingley Jr. will shadow him this week, but he has been shadowed already by players such as Jaire, Slay (twice), Gilmore, and Okudah (other corners are much better). Stingley has not been that good in pure coverage this season ranking 108 out of 132 qualified Corners according to PFF. Houston gives up a lot of explosive pass plays and with Terry’s 33%+ air yard share and 20%+ target share (32% with Heinicke last four games), he is in a prime position to boom this week.
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