George Kittle Under 48.5 Rec Yards
Kittle has gone over this line 3/8 times this season, with the latest coming against the Cardinals who are by far the worst in the league against tight ends, but when you look at this week, he has to face the Saints whose linebackers lock down tight ends. Demario Davis and Peter Werner have PFF coverage grades in the top 20 (and Davis is number five). Saints have the best DVOA against tight ends allowing the third least yards per game. 8.5-point spread should mean they don’t have to pass much as well. Even looking at last week, he only had a 20% target share. Through 11 weeks, only one tight end has gone over.
Alvin Kamara Under 55.5 Rush Yards (ParlayPlay)
Kamara has gone over this line in 4/9 games this season. I took this under last week and he has an even tougher matchup this week going against the 49ers. 49ers have 3rd toughest run DVOA, least rushing yards per game, least opponent yards per game, and 49ers rarely allows explosive runs while Kamara hasn’t been a very explosive runner, mostly relying on a heavy dose of touches. Last four games he has had 55% of the rushing attempts with 45% on the season. That is not very high and on top of that he will be facing a negative game script as they are 8.5-point underdogs.
Terry McLaurin Over 60.5 Rec Yards
Terry should have gone over this line last week as he had 55 yards in the first half but do to negative game script (leading in a blowout) he didn’t get any touches 2nd half, but he still had a 27% target share & 49% of the air yards in that game. He is going against the Falcons this week who allow the most air yards this season, with the 4th worst pass DVOA, and 23rd in deep pass DVOA. If this game is competitive, he will go over this line as his usage is much better with Heinicke at quarterback, and it helps that Commanders are 3.5-point favorites.
Samaje Perine Under 44.5 Rush Yards
Perine is the starter but in his first start this season, he is in a tough matchup against Titans who have the best run DVOA, 3rd least yards per attempt, and 2nd least rushing yards per game. Titans have an exploitable pass defense allowing the 3rd most air yards and lately, Bengals have the third highest pass rate over expectation. Only three running backs have gone over this line this season which was JT, Barkley, and Jacobs. Expecting the Bengals to give Perine the full Mixon Workload is hard to expect and for him to do good with those touches is expecting a lot as Bengals will continue to be pass heavy to win this game and lean on Burrow’s arm.
George Kittle Under 48.5 Rec Yards
Kittle has gone over this line 3/8 times this season, with the latest coming against the Cardinals who are by far the worst in the league against tight ends, but when you look at this week, he has to face the Saints whose linebackers lock down tight ends. Demario Davis and Peter Werner have PFF coverage grades in the top 20 (and Davis is number five). Saints have the best DVOA against tight ends allowing the third least yards per game. 8.5-point spread should mean they don’t have to pass much as well. Even looking at last week, he only had a 20% target share. Through 11 weeks, only one tight end has gone over.
Alvin Kamara Under 55.5 Rush Yards (ParlayPlay)
Kamara has gone over this line in 4/9 games this season. I took this under last week and he has an even tougher matchup this week going against the 49ers. 49ers have 3rd toughest run DVOA, least rushing yards per game, least opponent yards per game, and 49ers rarely allows explosive runs while Kamara hasn’t been a very explosive runner, mostly relying on a heavy dose of touches. Last four games he has had 55% of the rushing attempts with 45% on the season. That is not very high and on top of that he will be facing a negative game script as they are 8.5-point underdogs.
Terry McLaurin Over 60.5 Rec Yards
Terry should have gone over this line last week as he had 55 yards in the first half but do to negative game script (leading in a blowout) he didn’t get any touches 2nd half, but he still had a 27% target share & 49% of the air yards in that game. He is going against the Falcons this week who allow the most air yards this season, with the 4th worst pass DVOA, and 23rd in deep pass DVOA. If this game is competitive, he will go over this line as his usage is much better with Heinicke at quarterback, and it helps that Commanders are 3.5-point favorites.
Samaje Perine Under 44.5 Rush Yards
Perine is the starter but in his first start this season, he is in a tough matchup against Titans who have the best run DVOA, 3rd least yards per attempt, and 2nd least rushing yards per game. Titans have an exploitable pass defense allowing the 3rd most air yards and lately, Bengals have the third highest pass rate over expectation. Only three running backs have gone over this line this season which was JT, Barkley, and Jacobs. Expecting the Bengals to give Perine the full Mixon Workload is hard to expect and for him to do good with those touches is expecting a lot as Bengals will continue to be pass heavy to win this game and lean on Burrow’s arm.
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