Stefon Diggs Over 6.5 Rec
Diggs has a 30% target share on the season and a 28% TPRR, which has helped him go over this line in 7/11 games this season. Patriots play the 2nd most man coverage this season at a 46.5% rate, while Diggs has had the 4th most targets in the league versus man coverage. He has a 29% target share versus man coverage as well. Patriots play a lot of cover 1, which should leave a lot of one-on-one opportunities for Diggs to work is magic with his stellar route running abilities. Most likely will be matched up with either Mills or Jones, but last week Justin Jefferson could not be contained, and I expect the same for Diggs. In 7 games with at least 11 targets this season, he has gone over this line every time. Spread is 3.5 favoring the Bills in what should be a close game anyways due to the divisional matchup as both teams will play hard to beat their rivals, but not matter the game script, the Bills will continue to throw the ball at a high rate. Patriots love to try and takeaway the number one option, but in 2/4 games since joining the Bills, Diggs has had 7 and 9 receptions. When facing the blitz his targets go up to 31% vs 25%, and Patriots blitz at the 14th highest rate, but they get pressure at the 2nd highest rate, which should still help Diggs get targeted.
Rhamondre Stevenson Over 4.5 Rec
Since Mac Jones came back, his receptions have been 8, 7, 3, 6, and 9. There is no Harris tonight which will give him even more playing time. Bills play an average amount of zone coverage (earlier in the year it was much higher, but injuries and recent matchups have probably changed things up for them), but what sticks out is how they play mainly cover 2, cover 4, and cover 6, which is where running back target shares increase. I talked about last week (on my twitter page) how Stevenson’s target share jumps up to 30% vs cover 4 & cover 6 (Vikings played 2nd most going into last week, which was a great matchup for Stevenson), and now we add in the fact that cover 2 eliminates the deep ball, but opens up the underneath throws, which is where Stevenson has thrived lately. Meyers seems to be good to go tonight but is still hurt, which should earn Stevenson an extra target or two at least. If the Bills take off on the Patriots, it's even better for us as he will earn even more checkdown targets to try and move the ball down field in a struggling pass offense.
Stefon Diggs Over 6.5 Rec
Diggs has a 30% target share on the season and a 28% TPRR, which has helped him go over this line in 7/11 games this season. Patriots play the 2nd most man coverage this season at a 46.5% rate, while Diggs has had the 4th most targets in the league versus man coverage. He has a 29% target share versus man coverage as well. Patriots play a lot of cover 1, which should leave a lot of one-on-one opportunities for Diggs to work is magic with his stellar route running abilities. Most likely will be matched up with either Mills or Jones, but last week Justin Jefferson could not be contained, and I expect the same for Diggs. In 7 games with at least 11 targets this season, he has gone over this line every time. Spread is 3.5 favoring the Bills in what should be a close game anyways due to the divisional matchup as both teams will play hard to beat their rivals, but not matter the game script, the Bills will continue to throw the ball at a high rate. Patriots love to try and takeaway the number one option, but in 2/4 games since joining the Bills, Diggs has had 7 and 9 receptions. When facing the blitz his targets go up to 31% vs 25%, and Patriots blitz at the 14th highest rate, but they get pressure at the 2nd highest rate, which should still help Diggs get targeted.
Rhamondre Stevenson Over 4.5 Rec
Since Mac Jones came back, his receptions have been 8, 7, 3, 6, and 9. There is no Harris tonight which will give him even more playing time. Bills play an average amount of zone coverage (earlier in the year it was much higher, but injuries and recent matchups have probably changed things up for them), but what sticks out is how they play mainly cover 2, cover 4, and cover 6, which is where running back target shares increase. I talked about last week (on my twitter page) how Stevenson’s target share jumps up to 30% vs cover 4 & cover 6 (Vikings played 2nd most going into last week, which was a great matchup for Stevenson), and now we add in the fact that cover 2 eliminates the deep ball, but opens up the underneath throws, which is where Stevenson has thrived lately. Meyers seems to be good to go tonight but is still hurt, which should earn Stevenson an extra target or two at least. If the Bills take off on the Patriots, it's even better for us as he will earn even more checkdown targets to try and move the ball down field in a struggling pass offense.
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