1U Dameon Pierce (HOU) over 67.5 rush yards (-113) available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of initial post to Twitter. Playable to 70.5.
Some may be pointing to the "rookie wall" when trying to explain back-to-back underwhelming performances from Dameon Pierce, but I believe this is an opportune position to bet on talent at a reduced price. The rookie running back from Florida was out carried by Rex Burkhead in week 1 of the season but quickly took over the backfield in the next 8 weeks. Over that 8-game span pierce covered this line in 7 games for an average of 92.38 yards per game. The last 2 weeks have seen matchups against Washington and Miami, both stout rush defenses. Houston failed to remain competitive and game script led to lowered volume for the rookie. Now, Pierce and the Texans will host former QB Deshaun Watson and his new team, the Cleveland Browns. While there are obviously off-the-field issues that will garner mass headlines in this game, this is Houston's version of the super bowl and I expect their best effort/game plan.
The best game plan offensively for Houston is undoubtedly handing the ball to Pierce. Bookmakers have set his rush attempts line at 17.5 with juice to the over, implying a heavy workload. Cleveland has been atrocious this season when defending the run, ranking 31st in rush DVOA, 32nd in EPA per rush, 31st in PFF's rush defense grade, 27th in success rate, and 28th in explosive rush rate allowed. They have allowed spike games this season including 86 yards to both James Cook and Devin Singletary in the same game, 173 to Austin Ekeler, and 185 combined yards to Jeff Wilson and Raheem Mostert. What stands out from that list is all 3 of those teams (Bills, Chargers, Dolphins) are extremely pass-heavy teams ranking top 6 in PROE.
Pierce ranks 2nd in the league in team rush attempt share with the backfield nearly all to himself. Not only has the volume been there over the sample of the season as whole, but he is always a threat to bust off a big gain or 2. The rookie ranks 2nd in elusiveness rating behind only Nick Chubb while also ranking 10th in the NFL in break away rush yards per game. This longest rush prop is set at 16.5 and Pierce had ripped off a gain of at least 16 in 7 straight games before B2B misses. Cleveland ranks 23rd in tackling grade and 26th in yards allowed per attempt which is not an ideal combo when Pierce is coming to town. Not that the pass offense of Houston would be particularly voluminous to begin with, but the absence of Brandin Cooks may lead to an even more run-heavy approach, perhaps regardless of time and score. Ultimately, this line strikes me as too low for the median outcome and will side with talent at a reduced number.
1U Dameon Pierce (HOU) over 67.5 rush yards (-113) available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of initial post to Twitter. Playable to 70.5.
Some may be pointing to the "rookie wall" when trying to explain back-to-back underwhelming performances from Dameon Pierce, but I believe this is an opportune position to bet on talent at a reduced price. The rookie running back from Florida was out carried by Rex Burkhead in week 1 of the season but quickly took over the backfield in the next 8 weeks. Over that 8-game span pierce covered this line in 7 games for an average of 92.38 yards per game. The last 2 weeks have seen matchups against Washington and Miami, both stout rush defenses. Houston failed to remain competitive and game script led to lowered volume for the rookie. Now, Pierce and the Texans will host former QB Deshaun Watson and his new team, the Cleveland Browns. While there are obviously off-the-field issues that will garner mass headlines in this game, this is Houston's version of the super bowl and I expect their best effort/game plan.
The best game plan offensively for Houston is undoubtedly handing the ball to Pierce. Bookmakers have set his rush attempts line at 17.5 with juice to the over, implying a heavy workload. Cleveland has been atrocious this season when defending the run, ranking 31st in rush DVOA, 32nd in EPA per rush, 31st in PFF's rush defense grade, 27th in success rate, and 28th in explosive rush rate allowed. They have allowed spike games this season including 86 yards to both James Cook and Devin Singletary in the same game, 173 to Austin Ekeler, and 185 combined yards to Jeff Wilson and Raheem Mostert. What stands out from that list is all 3 of those teams (Bills, Chargers, Dolphins) are extremely pass-heavy teams ranking top 6 in PROE.
Pierce ranks 2nd in the league in team rush attempt share with the backfield nearly all to himself. Not only has the volume been there over the sample of the season as whole, but he is always a threat to bust off a big gain or 2. The rookie ranks 2nd in elusiveness rating behind only Nick Chubb while also ranking 10th in the NFL in break away rush yards per game. This longest rush prop is set at 16.5 and Pierce had ripped off a gain of at least 16 in 7 straight games before B2B misses. Cleveland ranks 23rd in tackling grade and 26th in yards allowed per attempt which is not an ideal combo when Pierce is coming to town. Not that the pass offense of Houston would be particularly voluminous to begin with, but the absence of Brandin Cooks may lead to an even more run-heavy approach, perhaps regardless of time and score. Ultimately, this line strikes me as too low for the median outcome and will side with talent at a reduced number.
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