Trevor Lawrence Over 252.5 Pass Yards
Lawrence has gone over this line in 6/11 games this season and has a great matchup against the Lions who have allowed 7 quarterbacks to go over this line. In simple terms, Lions have the worst pass defense in the league and could have to lean on Lawrence a bit more with Etienne still shaken up a bit with a foot injury (limited all week and should be good to go). Lions are allowing 4th most passing yards per game along with the most air yards. Something interesting that stands out is how Lawrence has the 2nd best EPA vs man coverage and he is facing a team who plays 2nd most man coverage at a 44.1% rate. This is projected to be the 2nd highest scoring game this week at 51.5 and Jaguars have the 5th highest implied point total at 25.5 in what should be one of the more faster paced games this week.
Darius Slayton Over 46.5 Rec Yards
Slayton has gone over this line in 6/8 games this season and facing a washington team allowing the 8th most air yards. Robinson is hurt and they literally don’t have much to throw to in this offense. His numbers may not pop but looking a little deeper, he has 2.16 YPRR on the season which is 14th (min 30 targets) which is within the Amari Cooper & Tee Higgins range this season for a comparison. Last 4 games, he has a 23% target share and 39% air yards share, which is good because Kendall Fuller has given up the 5th most yards this season (as far as cornerbacks), who is most likely his main matchup.
Trevor Lawrence Over 252.5 Pass Yards
Lawrence has gone over this line in 6/11 games this season and has a great matchup against the Lions who have allowed 7 quarterbacks to go over this line. In simple terms, Lions have the worst pass defense in the league and could have to lean on Lawrence a bit more with Etienne still shaken up a bit with a foot injury (limited all week and should be good to go). Lions are allowing 4th most passing yards per game along with the most air yards. Something interesting that stands out is how Lawrence has the 2nd best EPA vs man coverage and he is facing a team who plays 2nd most man coverage at a 44.1% rate. This is projected to be the 2nd highest scoring game this week at 51.5 and Jaguars have the 5th highest implied point total at 25.5 in what should be one of the more faster paced games this week.
Darius Slayton Over 46.5 Rec Yards
Slayton has gone over this line in 6/8 games this season and facing a washington team allowing the 8th most air yards. Robinson is hurt and they literally don’t have much to throw to in this offense. His numbers may not pop but looking a little deeper, he has 2.16 YPRR on the season which is 14th (min 30 targets) which is within the Amari Cooper & Tee Higgins range this season for a comparison. Last 4 games, he has a 23% target share and 39% air yards share, which is good because Kendall Fuller has given up the 5th most yards this season (as far as cornerbacks), who is most likely his main matchup.
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