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JSleeprStats
Member since June 03, 2022
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@JSleeprStats
NBA ORL vs NOP Props 4/3
Basketball
Original Content
JSleeprStats
These two teams have played only once this season, which resulted in a Magic win, but it was also the game where the Pelicans lost Brandon Ingram to a knee injury. I will not be expecting much of Jonas Valanciunas tonight as the Magic run a five-out offense, which surrounds the floor with shooters from positions one through five. This is like what the Celtics did the other day which resulted in a second half start from Larry Nance and a total of 18 minutes played from Valanciunas. He is simply too slow and flat footed to defend five-out offenses, which is why the Pelicans would rather play smaller with lengthy defenders.
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1 month ago
NBA DAL vs GSW Prop Breakdown 4/2
Basketball
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JSleeprStats
Watching the matchup back from a few weeks ago, the Warriors were very focused on taking away the scoring of Luka and Kyrie, forcing others to beat them, but unfortunately the Warriors did not have enough offense to pullup it off as they were without Steph Curry that night. They limited both players to 21 and 23 points, but both players had 9 and 10 assists. I believe the Warriors will come back with a similar game plan tonight. They did not want either player to step into uncontested pullup threes as the extra help off the pick & roll was always ready and stepping up, but this opens the paint for easy lobs and open threes as the Warriors have been very sloppy in their rotations for at least the past month. Dallas did not do a good job of executing from deep as they shot 6 of 27 from deep, but when open or wide open from three, they shot 8 of 25 from the field, including 7 of 18 when wide open (6+ feet of space).
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1 month ago
NBA LAC vs SAC Prop Breakdown 4/2
Basketball
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JSleeprStats
Analyzing the last matchup starting with the Clippers defense first, we see that they did not try to switch much and relied on man to man, but a lot of the times Zubac was in drop coverage but off the pick and roll he wouldn’t try and drop too far back, but just enough to give them the free throw line look while the defender guarding the ball handler was doing their best to be on their hip off the screen. A lot of time the Clippers executed this very poorly. Their were times guys like Fox and Monk would be able to pull off the switch and trying to get straight to the rim. Clippers did an awful job of defending the paint from driving guards. They did not play much help defense and don’t have someone that can match the speed of Fox, especially if he forces a switch to get to the rim. Murray can have a solid game here tonight as they struggled to go over screens whether it was on or off ball screens, and if he gets a decent looks, he will pull the trigger.
Read more | 3 min read
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1 month ago
NBA Props 4/1
Basketball
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JSleeprStats
Trey Murphy Under 16.5 Pts (-106 FD)
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1 month ago
NBA Props 4/1
Basketball
Original Content
JSleeprStats
Trey Murphy Under 16.5 Pts (-106 FD)
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1 month ago
NBA BOS vs CHA Prop Breakdown
Basketball
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JSleeprStats
Miller has seen 15+ field goal attempts in 15 of his last 20 games. He get the Celtics matchup tonight and is the primary pullup shooter for the Hornets. When he sees 30+ minutes and 15+ field goal attempts, he’s gone over this prop in 23 of 34 games this season, including 9 of 13 games since the all-star break. Even against the top 15 spot up shooting defenses this season, he’s gone over this prop in 11 of 15 games. He has been blossoming into a three-level scorer since the mid part of the season. Miller has a nice wingspan that will be difficult to properly contest. He does a great job of using screens to get free up enough space to pull the trigger on threes. And with the drop coverage the Celtics play, it’ll be plenty of space from three or midrange. He has been solid off the dribble but for other players that rely solely on spot up shooting or driving to the rim will have a tough time scoring such as Vasilije Micic, who doesn’t really use pick & roll to pullup but rather get the rim and score off drives. In games of 30+ …
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1 month ago
NBA Props 3/31
Basketball
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JSleeprStats
Naz Reid Over 16.5 Pts (-118 FD)
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1 month ago
NBA LAL vs BKN Props To Take 3/31
Basketball
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JSleeprStats
Thomas has been going back to his shot chucking ways, putting up 27 and 22 field goal attempts in his last two games, and now he gets a pace boost matchup against the Lakers. The Lakers are top 5 in pace not only on the season but in the last 10 games as well, showing that they will try to use it to their advantage. The Nets do not play at a fast pace without Ben Simmons as they are ranked with the 7th slowest pace in the past 10 games. Against the top 15 teams in terms of pace on the season, Thomas has gone over this prop in 10 of 16 games this season while playing 30+ minutes (which he has done in 10 straight games). When you factor in how he has managed to take 17+ field goal attempts in 8 of his last 10 games, against the top 15 paced teams playing 30+ minutes and taking 17+ field goal attempts, he’s gone over this prop in 9 of 12 games. The Lakers would like to have Davis control the paint with more of a drop coverage look, which will allow for a lot of pullup field …
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1 month ago
NBA Props 3/30
Basketball
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JSleeprStats
Jalen Suggs Over 19.5 PRA (-105 DK)
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1 month ago
BOS vs NOP Props To Take
Basketball
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JSleeprStats
Murphy has not had a lot of shot volume without Brandon Ingram, only seeing a high of 13 field goal attempts when he does not play in 6 games so far. Without Ingram he’s gone under this line in 5 of 6 games, with the only over being against the Thunder who allow the 5th highest catch & shoot frequency in the past 10 games. The problem here is that he’s facing a good catch & shoot defense, as the Celtics are allowing the 5th lowest frequency of catch & shoot threes in the past 10 games. This season when Murphy plays 30+ minutes and takes 15 or less field goal attempts (minimum 8 attempts) against the top 20 spot up defenses, he’s gone under this prop in 8 of 12 games. Even when you take away top 20 spot defenses and just look filter 30+ minutes and 15 or less field goal attempts, he’s gone under this prop in 12 of 18 games. Another good chunk of his points come in transition as well, where the Celtics have been good this season, ranked as a top 5 transition defense. The Celtics are playing with the 5th slowest pace in …
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1 month ago
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