1U Texas Rangers first 5 innings team total over 2.5 (-130) available at DraftKings sportsbook at time of initial post to Twitter. Playable to -140 odds.
This is my 10th time backing the Texas Rangers offense this season and I regret not doing it more often. They mash pitching from either side of the plate and lead all of baseball in runs per game at 6.25. 3.81 of those runs come within the first 5 innings, on average, and when at home that mark increases to 4.57/F5. They are incredibly deep with not one single batter in their order providing an easy out for opposing pitchers. All 9 bats in today's projected lineup have a wOBA of at least .323 against southpaw pitching this season with Nathaniel Lowe as the low mark in the order. Even Ezequiel Duran and Leody Tavares are tough outs at the bottom of the order and would be batting far higher on most other teams.
The Rangers will face their division rival Angels and left-hander Tyler Anderson today. This is the 2nd time Texas will have seen Anderson this season and it is the 3rd straight start of his where I have bet against him. I took his under strikeouts against the White Sox, under outs against the Cubs, and now I am looking for him to surrender 3 or more runs in the first 5 innings. In that first matchup Anderson allowed 3 runs in 5 innings of work, walking 5 and allowing 5 hits. His 6.37 xFIP and 40% hard-hit rate from that game shows he was a bit fortunate to only allow 3 runs.
Anderson relies on his changeup more than any other starting pitcher in baseball. That changeup accounts for 33% of his pitch mix but the Rangers demolish opposing changeups. They rank 4th in RV/100 against that offering in the last 30 days and 1st over the course of the season. His 4-seamer is used over 35% of the time but gets crushed, allowing a .600 SLG and .436 wOBA. A career low first pitch strike rate and drastically decreased chase rate have set him behind in unfavorable counts and his fastball has suffered. He is also walking more batters than ever while seeing a drop in his K%. The result is a putrid 3.8% K-BB%.
Anderson's 36.8% fly ball rate is not a good sign against a Texas team ranking first in hard-hit rate against southpaw pitching in the last month. Texas has been crushing most left-handed pitchers in their path including scoring 3 runs off Shane McClanahan in the first 3 innings of yesterday's game. Of the last 16 left-handed starting pitchers to face the Rangers, 14 of them have allowed 3 or more runs in the first 5 innings. That includes each of the last 6 to enter Globe Life Field. Anderson has a 5.62 ERA while his 5.98 xFIP is even less encouraging. Anderson has allowed 3 or more runs in the first 5 innings in 8 of his last 10 starts and this is his toughest matchup yet given Texas has familiarity with him this season. I also like Anderson over 1.5 walks and most TB/HRRBI props for Ranger batters as well.
1U Texas Rangers first 5 innings team total over 2.5 (-130) available at DraftKings sportsbook at time of initial post to Twitter. Playable to -140 odds.
This is my 10th time backing the Texas Rangers offense this season and I regret not doing it more often. They mash pitching from either side of the plate and lead all of baseball in runs per game at 6.25. 3.81 of those runs come within the first 5 innings, on average, and when at home that mark increases to 4.57/F5. They are incredibly deep with not one single batter in their order providing an easy out for opposing pitchers. All 9 bats in today's projected lineup have a wOBA of at least .323 against southpaw pitching this season with Nathaniel Lowe as the low mark in the order. Even Ezequiel Duran and Leody Tavares are tough outs at the bottom of the order and would be batting far higher on most other teams.
The Rangers will face their division rival Angels and left-hander Tyler Anderson today. This is the 2nd time Texas will have seen Anderson this season and it is the 3rd straight start of his where I have bet against him. I took his under strikeouts against the White Sox, under outs against the Cubs, and now I am looking for him to surrender 3 or more runs in the first 5 innings. In that first matchup Anderson allowed 3 runs in 5 innings of work, walking 5 and allowing 5 hits. His 6.37 xFIP and 40% hard-hit rate from that game shows he was a bit fortunate to only allow 3 runs.
Anderson relies on his changeup more than any other starting pitcher in baseball. That changeup accounts for 33% of his pitch mix but the Rangers demolish opposing changeups. They rank 4th in RV/100 against that offering in the last 30 days and 1st over the course of the season. His 4-seamer is used over 35% of the time but gets crushed, allowing a .600 SLG and .436 wOBA. A career low first pitch strike rate and drastically decreased chase rate have set him behind in unfavorable counts and his fastball has suffered. He is also walking more batters than ever while seeing a drop in his K%. The result is a putrid 3.8% K-BB%.
Anderson's 36.8% fly ball rate is not a good sign against a Texas team ranking first in hard-hit rate against southpaw pitching in the last month. Texas has been crushing most left-handed pitchers in their path including scoring 3 runs off Shane McClanahan in the first 3 innings of yesterday's game. Of the last 16 left-handed starting pitchers to face the Rangers, 14 of them have allowed 3 or more runs in the first 5 innings. That includes each of the last 6 to enter Globe Life Field. Anderson has a 5.62 ERA while his 5.98 xFIP is even less encouraging. Anderson has allowed 3 or more runs in the first 5 innings in 8 of his last 10 starts and this is his toughest matchup yet given Texas has familiarity with him this season. I also like Anderson over 1.5 walks and most TB/HRRBI props for Ranger batters as well.
No need to sift through the clutter.
Just use the prop cheatsheet.