1U Cincinnati Reds first 5 innings team total over 1.5 runs (-135) available at DraftKings sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -140 odds. Fine with full game team total over 3.5 if that is all you have access to.
The Reds are eating up right-handed pitching of late. Each of the last 6 right-handed starting pitchers to face Cincinnati have allowed at least 3 earned runs within the first 5 innings of the game. We only need 2 runs in the first 5 innings tonight and they don't even need to be earned. Of the last 25 right-handed starting pitchers to face the Reds, dating back to June 5th, 20 of them have allowed at least 2 runs within the first 5 innings. That includes quality arms such as Sandy Alcantara, Eury Perez, Kodai Senga, Corbin Burnes, and Tony Gonsolin. During that span they are drawing walks at the 8th highest clip against right-handers while ranking 8th in wOBA. When on the road during that span they rank 2nd in wOBA and have posted a wRC+ of 121.
Cincinnati has not only been productive but they are fun to watch with their young lineup making splashes both with the bats and when on the bases. The Reds rank 3rd in stolen bases per game over the course of the season, and that includes only 9 games from top ranked prospect Elly De La Cruz. Elly has recorded a stolen base in 5 of his 9 games, adding 100th percentile spring speed as well as switch hitting power. His first batted ball in the major leagues was 112.2 MPH off the bat and that is nothing compared to his minor league batted ball numbers. Fellow rookie Matt McLain was called up in mid-May and has been as steady as a team can hope for from a rookie hitter. The 5’8” 23-year-old is small in stature, but his .895 OPS has been massive for this ball club. His presence at the top of the order alongside TJ Friedl and Jonathan India has created a 3-headed monster of on-base studs against right-handed pitching. Those 3 guys getting on base for De La Cruz Spencer Steer, another rookie acquired in the Tyler Mahle trade last season, has been a solid recipe for success. Steer leads the team with 9 home runs while ranking 2nd in RBI and posting an .825 OPS against right-handed pitching. Will Benson, yes, another rookie, has also been hot this month, posting a .303 AVG and .834 OPS across his 39 PA this month.
The lineup for Cincinnati will likely have 6 right-handed batters in it tonight. While that may seem sub-optimal against right-handed pitching, it is actually an advantage for the Reds as J.P. France has reverse splits. The Astros' right-hander has allowed right-handed batters to post a .391 wOBA, .288 ISO, .282 AVG, and .892 OPS against him this season across a sample of 78 PA. France is 28 years old and pitched 2 and a half seasons at the AAA level before being promoted this season. His 2021 FIP of 4.60 and 2022 4.70 FIP were not very impressive marks, and he has always struggled with limiting walks. That was highlighted in his last outing where he issued 6 free passes against a Cleveland team that has the 10th lowest BB% against right-handed pitching this season. He falls behind in counts often with a 53.8% first-pitch strike rate, and his already high 43.3% 4-seamer usage jumps to 55.1% when behind in counts. His fastball has been crushed overall, allowing a .318 BA, .470 SLG, and .397 wOBA against that offering. The Reds rank 8th in wOBA against right-handed 4-seamers this season and 4th in RV/100 against 4-seamers in general. France has also struggled at home which makes sense given his poor splits against right-handed batters and the short porch in Minute Maid Park. With the Reds recent form, and France's 3.54 ERA shadowed by a 4.98 FIP, I am more than willing to bet on the Cincinnati bats once again.
1U Cincinnati Reds first 5 innings team total over 1.5 runs (-135) available at DraftKings sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -140 odds. Fine with full game team total over 3.5 if that is all you have access to.
The Reds are eating up right-handed pitching of late. Each of the last 6 right-handed starting pitchers to face Cincinnati have allowed at least 3 earned runs within the first 5 innings of the game. We only need 2 runs in the first 5 innings tonight and they don't even need to be earned. Of the last 25 right-handed starting pitchers to face the Reds, dating back to June 5th, 20 of them have allowed at least 2 runs within the first 5 innings. That includes quality arms such as Sandy Alcantara, Eury Perez, Kodai Senga, Corbin Burnes, and Tony Gonsolin. During that span they are drawing walks at the 8th highest clip against right-handers while ranking 8th in wOBA. When on the road during that span they rank 2nd in wOBA and have posted a wRC+ of 121.
Cincinnati has not only been productive but they are fun to watch with their young lineup making splashes both with the bats and when on the bases. The Reds rank 3rd in stolen bases per game over the course of the season, and that includes only 9 games from top ranked prospect Elly De La Cruz. Elly has recorded a stolen base in 5 of his 9 games, adding 100th percentile spring speed as well as switch hitting power. His first batted ball in the major leagues was 112.2 MPH off the bat and that is nothing compared to his minor league batted ball numbers. Fellow rookie Matt McLain was called up in mid-May and has been as steady as a team can hope for from a rookie hitter. The 5’8” 23-year-old is small in stature, but his .895 OPS has been massive for this ball club. His presence at the top of the order alongside TJ Friedl and Jonathan India has created a 3-headed monster of on-base studs against right-handed pitching. Those 3 guys getting on base for De La Cruz Spencer Steer, another rookie acquired in the Tyler Mahle trade last season, has been a solid recipe for success. Steer leads the team with 9 home runs while ranking 2nd in RBI and posting an .825 OPS against right-handed pitching. Will Benson, yes, another rookie, has also been hot this month, posting a .303 AVG and .834 OPS across his 39 PA this month.
The lineup for Cincinnati will likely have 6 right-handed batters in it tonight. While that may seem sub-optimal against right-handed pitching, it is actually an advantage for the Reds as J.P. France has reverse splits. The Astros' right-hander has allowed right-handed batters to post a .391 wOBA, .288 ISO, .282 AVG, and .892 OPS against him this season across a sample of 78 PA. France is 28 years old and pitched 2 and a half seasons at the AAA level before being promoted this season. His 2021 FIP of 4.60 and 2022 4.70 FIP were not very impressive marks, and he has always struggled with limiting walks. That was highlighted in his last outing where he issued 6 free passes against a Cleveland team that has the 10th lowest BB% against right-handed pitching this season. He falls behind in counts often with a 53.8% first-pitch strike rate, and his already high 43.3% 4-seamer usage jumps to 55.1% when behind in counts. His fastball has been crushed overall, allowing a .318 BA, .470 SLG, and .397 wOBA against that offering. The Reds rank 8th in wOBA against right-handed 4-seamers this season and 4th in RV/100 against 4-seamers in general. France has also struggled at home which makes sense given his poor splits against right-handed batters and the short porch in Minute Maid Park. With the Reds recent form, and France's 3.54 ERA shadowed by a 4.98 FIP, I am more than willing to bet on the Cincinnati bats once again.
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