1U James Paxton (BOS) over 6.5 strikeouts (-124) available at time of publishing. Playable to -135 odds.
After only 6 combined starts between the 2020 and 2021 seasons, and missing the entire 2022 campaign, I personally had low expectations for veteran southpaw James Paxton entering this season. The 34-year-old appears to be at full health, however, and draws an opportune matchup tonight against the Minnesota Twins. Paxton was quoted saying, “I felt like I wasn’t done. I felt like I still had some left in the tank to give, and I still feel like I do,” he said. “I’ve had a lot of injuries over my career. I think I’ve got some bullets saved up. And the arm feels great out there right now.” When asked about his role on the team and the need for quality starts from the Boston staff, he said, “It’s not something you can take out to the mound with you. We’re out there doing everything we can to be the best we can that day no matter what. I’m not really thinking about what the team needs, because I can’t. I have to be focused solely on what I’m trying to accomplish on the mound. So each day I’m going out there when I’m pitching and just giving it everything I’ve got.” While he may not necessarily be focusing on what the team needs, their manager is, and Boston would love to get a long outing from their left-hander tonight.
Boston is victim of the dreaded Sunday night baseball travel, flying from Boston to Minnesota to play a game the next day. The Red Sox also played a doubleheader yesterday, using up numerous long relievers. While Brayan Bello saved some of the pen in the 2nd game, tossing 7 innings, using the long relievers in the first game is likely to expand the leash of Paxton should he run into any trouble in the early to middle innings of the game tonight. Paxton's leash is already long, having tossed 107, 100, 106, and 98 pitches in 4 of his last 5 starts. The veteran also had his start day pushed back, giving him an additional day of rest to get prepared for this outing. He has made 3 starts this season with 6 days of rest, recording 22 strikeouts in 16 IP while posting a 2.25 ERA and 1.06 WHIP. Paxton's 3.09 FIP matches his 3.10 xFIP and 3.09 ERA, while his BABIP and LOB% are nearly directly in line with his career averages.
Paxton shoots ahead in counts, getting ahead 0-2 to 37.6% of the batters he faces. If he qualified that would be the 3rd highest mark in MLB this season behind Spencer Strider and Joe Ryan. This elite mark helps him be able to throw the ball out of the zone and induce chases, something he generates at a 71st percentile clip. His chase contact rate allowed on those swings is 11.8% below league average, leading to a ton of whiffs. Paxton also draws those whiffs inside the zone with a zone contact rate that is 6.5% below league average. His 4-seam fastball has been lethal, averaging 95.8 MPH from the left side while generating a 29.0% whiff rate and 25.3% put away rate. Paxton's curveball (18.9% usage, 37.0% whiff rate, 23.3% put away rate) and cutter (18.7% usage, 34.5% whiff rate, 22.6% put away rate), and changeup (5.9% usage, 61.5% whiff rate, 33.3% put away rate) are all plus secondary offerings as well. Overall, Paxton has generated a career best 14.9% swinging strike rate and 31.4% CSW% so far this season. While it is surprising seeing a career high SwStr% at age 34, his 14.3% and 14.1% marks from his 2 most recent healthy seasons suggest that this rate is somewhat sustainable.
The Minnesota Twins are one of the league's worst offenses against left-handed pitching this season. When looking at the last 30 days alone, Minnesota ranks 6th worst in K% (26.4%), 7th worst in wOBA (.293), and have a wRC+ of 86. On the season they are 28th in wOBA with the 2nd highest K% (27.9%) against southpaw pitching. I mentioned how lethal Paxton's 4-seamer has been, and that pitch has accounted for 23 of his 44 strikeouts recorded this season. His strength is the Twins weakness as against left-handed 4-seamers this season Minnesota has the 2nd highest strikeout rate while posting the 9th lowest ISO. Overall, regardless of handedness, in the last 30 days Minnesota has the league's highest CSW%, the 2nd lowest zone contact rate, and the 7th lowest chase contact rate.
Paxton has reverse splits, allowing more power to left-handed bats while seeing his strikeout rate falter. That worry is somewhat alleviated in this matchup, however, as Minnesota has very few left-handed bats on their roster and are expected to roll with 7 right-handers tonight. Even if they were to throw an extra left-hander in there, none of them have even a league-average wOBA against LHP in the last 2 seasons. They also all have high strikeout rates. Paxton's 37.2% K% against right-handed batters gets me excited for this matchup given everyone in the lineup can strikeout, especially the bottom of that order. Non-strikeout arms such as Joey Wentz (9) and Matthew Boyd (8) just torched the Twins from the left side in the last week alone, while Reid Detmers (12), Chris Sale (11), and Jesus Luzardo (10) have left their marks this season as well. Paxton has recorded 8 or more strikeouts in 4 of his 6 starts this season with one of the misses landed on 5 strikeouts through 59 pitches. Included among those overs are 9 strikeouts against both St. Louis and Cleveland, both teams who are typically K-averse.
*If you are placing this bet at FanDuel, save a step by clicking the link below. It will put James Paxton O6.5 strikeouts directly into your betslip on the app!*
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1U James Paxton (BOS) over 6.5 strikeouts (-124) available at time of publishing. Playable to -135 odds.
After only 6 combined starts between the 2020 and 2021 seasons, and missing the entire 2022 campaign, I personally had low expectations for veteran southpaw James Paxton entering this season. The 34-year-old appears to be at full health, however, and draws an opportune matchup tonight against the Minnesota Twins. Paxton was quoted saying, “I felt like I wasn’t done. I felt like I still had some left in the tank to give, and I still feel like I do,” he said. “I’ve had a lot of injuries over my career. I think I’ve got some bullets saved up. And the arm feels great out there right now.” When asked about his role on the team and the need for quality starts from the Boston staff, he said, “It’s not something you can take out to the mound with you. We’re out there doing everything we can to be the best we can that day no matter what. I’m not really thinking about what the team needs, because I can’t. I have to be focused solely on what I’m trying to accomplish on the mound. So each day I’m going out there when I’m pitching and just giving it everything I’ve got.” While he may not necessarily be focusing on what the team needs, their manager is, and Boston would love to get a long outing from their left-hander tonight.
Boston is victim of the dreaded Sunday night baseball travel, flying from Boston to Minnesota to play a game the next day. The Red Sox also played a doubleheader yesterday, using up numerous long relievers. While Brayan Bello saved some of the pen in the 2nd game, tossing 7 innings, using the long relievers in the first game is likely to expand the leash of Paxton should he run into any trouble in the early to middle innings of the game tonight. Paxton's leash is already long, having tossed 107, 100, 106, and 98 pitches in 4 of his last 5 starts. The veteran also had his start day pushed back, giving him an additional day of rest to get prepared for this outing. He has made 3 starts this season with 6 days of rest, recording 22 strikeouts in 16 IP while posting a 2.25 ERA and 1.06 WHIP. Paxton's 3.09 FIP matches his 3.10 xFIP and 3.09 ERA, while his BABIP and LOB% are nearly directly in line with his career averages.
Paxton shoots ahead in counts, getting ahead 0-2 to 37.6% of the batters he faces. If he qualified that would be the 3rd highest mark in MLB this season behind Spencer Strider and Joe Ryan. This elite mark helps him be able to throw the ball out of the zone and induce chases, something he generates at a 71st percentile clip. His chase contact rate allowed on those swings is 11.8% below league average, leading to a ton of whiffs. Paxton also draws those whiffs inside the zone with a zone contact rate that is 6.5% below league average. His 4-seam fastball has been lethal, averaging 95.8 MPH from the left side while generating a 29.0% whiff rate and 25.3% put away rate. Paxton's curveball (18.9% usage, 37.0% whiff rate, 23.3% put away rate) and cutter (18.7% usage, 34.5% whiff rate, 22.6% put away rate), and changeup (5.9% usage, 61.5% whiff rate, 33.3% put away rate) are all plus secondary offerings as well. Overall, Paxton has generated a career best 14.9% swinging strike rate and 31.4% CSW% so far this season. While it is surprising seeing a career high SwStr% at age 34, his 14.3% and 14.1% marks from his 2 most recent healthy seasons suggest that this rate is somewhat sustainable.
The Minnesota Twins are one of the league's worst offenses against left-handed pitching this season. When looking at the last 30 days alone, Minnesota ranks 6th worst in K% (26.4%), 7th worst in wOBA (.293), and have a wRC+ of 86. On the season they are 28th in wOBA with the 2nd highest K% (27.9%) against southpaw pitching. I mentioned how lethal Paxton's 4-seamer has been, and that pitch has accounted for 23 of his 44 strikeouts recorded this season. His strength is the Twins weakness as against left-handed 4-seamers this season Minnesota has the 2nd highest strikeout rate while posting the 9th lowest ISO. Overall, regardless of handedness, in the last 30 days Minnesota has the league's highest CSW%, the 2nd lowest zone contact rate, and the 7th lowest chase contact rate.
Paxton has reverse splits, allowing more power to left-handed bats while seeing his strikeout rate falter. That worry is somewhat alleviated in this matchup, however, as Minnesota has very few left-handed bats on their roster and are expected to roll with 7 right-handers tonight. Even if they were to throw an extra left-hander in there, none of them have even a league-average wOBA against LHP in the last 2 seasons. They also all have high strikeout rates. Paxton's 37.2% K% against right-handed batters gets me excited for this matchup given everyone in the lineup can strikeout, especially the bottom of that order. Non-strikeout arms such as Joey Wentz (9) and Matthew Boyd (8) just torched the Twins from the left side in the last week alone, while Reid Detmers (12), Chris Sale (11), and Jesus Luzardo (10) have left their marks this season as well. Paxton has recorded 8 or more strikeouts in 4 of his 6 starts this season with one of the misses landed on 5 strikeouts through 59 pitches. Included among those overs are 9 strikeouts against both St. Louis and Cleveland, both teams who are typically K-averse.
*If you are placing this bet at FanDuel, save a step by clicking the link below. It will put James Paxton O6.5 strikeouts directly into your betslip on the app!*
https://t.co/3c04mSkGhX
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