1U Alex Wood (SFG) under 15.5 outs recorded (-120) available at BetMGM sportsbook at time of initial post to Twitter. Playable to -135 odds.
Alex Wood has a tough matchup today. The San Diego Padres have been far better against left-handed pitching this season (112 wRC+) than right-handed pitching (96 wRC+), and over the last 30 days their numbers against southpaws are even better. With a 130 wRC+ in that span, and ranking 2nd in wOBA, 2nd in ISO, and 6th in BB%, the Padres have been dominating lefties. They have faced solid ones during this stretch as well, including MacKenzie Gore, Braxton Garrett, Jesus Luzardo, and even Shane McClanahan. Not only are they producing, but they are extremely patient, ranking 3rd in MLB at 3.99 pitches per plate appearance. The league average mark for P/PA is 3.91. San Diego's projected lineup has 6 batters averaging 4.00 or more P/PA this season including 4 at 4.15 or higher. Trent Grisham (4.15) and Ha-Seong Kim (4.50, league-leading mark) are typically the 8 and 9 hitters and having that type of patience at the bottom of the order is a luxury not many teams have. Their patience not only runs up the pitch count but can lead to walks (11.0% and 13.4% BB%'s respectively this season for them against LHP.) Getting on base for the Tatis Jr., Soto, Machado, Bogaerts quartet is a dangerous recipe.
In the last 30 days San Diego has the league's lowest chase rate at 27.9%. Their pitch selection is elite and they pounce on mistakes very well. Wood has struggled to generate chases this season, ranking just 9th percentile with his 23.5% rate. He was able to generate a 33.3% chase rate in his last start against the Dodgers, but Los Angeles is in a bit of a plate discipline down spell right now, chasing at the 9th highest rate in the last week. Their chase rate against Wood resulted in his most efficient outing of the season, finishing 5 scoreless innings of work in only 67 pitches without issuing a single walk. On the season, however, Wood has a career-low first pitch strike rate while walking 10.1% of the batters he has faced. Being limited to those 67 pitches is another element of this play. That was Wood's first start since coming off the IL with a hamstring issue. His last rehab start resulted in 3 innings across 53 pitches while facing 13 batters, not overly efficient. 53 pitches to 67 in his next one should put him in line for around 80-85 pitches today. That falls in line with his 2021 and 2022 averages of 84.4 and 86.1 pitches per start. His workload isn't particularly long to begin with, and last season he was even under this number in 13/26 starts without restriction. Last season he struggled the 3rd time through the order, allowing a .941 OPS and .326 AVG across 94 PA, and the Giants have a solid bullpen ready to relieve him. In the last 30 days San Francisco relievers rank 1st in FIP and 2nd in K-BB%. They were decently worked last night but have Jakob Junis available who typically covers multiple innings anyway.
1U Jake Irvin (WAS) under 3.5 strikeouts (+100) available at BetMGM sportsbook at time of inital post to Twitter. Playable to -125 odds.
Taking an under on a 3.5 strikeout prop can be scary, but I see a ton of value in this line. Jake Irvin is simply not a strikeout pitcher. The only time in his minor league career where he exceeded a K/9 of 8.70 (a mark he had in A+), was in AA where he reached 9.56 with the pre-treated AA balls they use that inflates every pitcher's strikeout numbers. Irvin's 4.79 ERA and 3.99 FIP across those 73.1 AA innings somehow elevated him to AAA to begin this season where he made only 5 starts (5.64 ERA, 5.26 FIP, 8.06 K/9.) Washington loved those numbers and decided he was ready for the big leagues. Through 8 starts Irvin has a 5.25 ERA, 5.39 FIP, 5.87 xFIP, 5.75 SIERA, and 3.0% K-BB (6.75 K/9.) Irvin is averaging 84.9 pitches and 20.75 batters faced per start, so his workload isn't high, and the vast majority of Washington's bullpen is rested so it shouldn't be pushed heavily.
Through 8 starts Irvin has covered this 3.5 mark 4 times, but his underlying strikeout numbers are about as bad as can be. His 4.9% swinging strike rate is nearly nonexistent, ranking 1st percentile in MLB, and he has posted a 5.6% swinging strike rate or lower in 7 of his 8 outings. Arizona, his matchup today, has a league-low 8.0% swinging strike rate as a team in the last 30 days. They chase at the 4th lowest rate and have the 2nd highest zone contact rate during that span as well. Against right-handed pitching during that timeframe Arizona has posted a strikeout rate of only 18.8%, the 2nd lowest mark behind only Cleveland. Irvin falls behind in counts with a 53.6% first pitch strike rate and fails to catch up with his 20.4% chase rate ranking 3rd percentile. His 93.6% zone contact rate allowed is among the highest in the league and against a high contact team like Arizona strikeouts will be hard to come by.
That is especially true when facing this Diamondbacks team for the 2nd time in the last 16 days. Irvin tosses 83 pitches to 21 batters in that last outing spanning 4 innings while recording only a single strikeout. Arizona drew 3 walks and got 5 hits against him on the way to 4 runs, 3 of which were earned to Irvin's record. A 3.6% swinging strike rate, 93.1% zone contact rate, and season high 92.3% chase contact rate were some of his underlying metrics in that game. Nick Ahmed is the biggest strikeout threat in the lineup and he's batting 8th. By biggest strikeout threat, he is at only 24.1% since the start of last season (83 PA) while producing a .387 wOBA and .197 ISO. He could be worse. Also, with Irvin having faced only 17 batters combined the 3rd time through the order in 8 starts, the likelihood or facing Ahmed for a 3rd time are very low.
*If you are placing this bet at FanDuel, save a step by clicking the link below. It will put Jake Irvin under 3.5 strikeouts directly into your betslip on the app!*
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1U Bryan Woo (SEA) over 5.5 strikeouts (-106) available at FanDuel sportsbooks at time of initial post to Twitter. Playable to -125 odds.
After 2 under bets, I will give you my favorite over on today's slate. Bryan Woo will make his 4th MLB start today after skipping AAA entirely. His debut fell on a day I wasn't able to bet due to attending a Wedding, but I am thankful for that as he got shelled by the Texas Rangers. Going from AA to a matchup against the Rangers is a strange way to call up a celebrated prospect, and I don't blame him for struggling in that spot. His stuff was fine in that game, generating a 12.8% swinging strike rate but the chases weren't there, and the runs were. He still struck out 4 Rangers but only lasted 2 innings of work. His next start was against the White Sox and he struck out 7 batters while seeing his pitch count hit 81. Woo followed up that strong outing by striking out 9 Los Angeles Angels and leading the entire slate in strikeouts on the day.
Through 3 starts his strikeout profile is about as good as can be. A 69.8% first pitch strike rate gets him ahead in counts early and often. He then draws chases at a 37.3% rate while allowing contact on those chases only 56.1% of the time. Woo wins inside the zone as well, allowing a zone contact rate of only 75.3% and generating whiffs overall at a 31.4% clip. His 16.0% swinging strike rate is very impressive, and he is able to generate those misses with his entire repertoire. His 4-seam fastball has been used over 52% of the time while generating a 32.3% whiff rate and 30.3% put away rate. The Yankees have the 6th highest strikeout rate this season against right-handed 4-seam fastballs. Woo has all of his strikeouts against left-handed batters by way of his fastball, but against right-handed batters his arsenal expands from 2 pitches to 3. He adds a sinker which generates a healthy number of looking strikes and moves more than his 4-seamer despite nearly identical velocity. His slider is also used against either handedness but against right-handed batters alone has generated a 45% whiff rate.
Woo's strikeout numbers should come as no surprise as he has always been a high-octane arm that puts away batters with a 3rd strike. Command was an issue in 2022 following Tommy John surgery but that worry has been alleviated with a 2.45 BB/9 in AA and 1.46 BB/9 so far in the majors. Overall, the Yankees are middle of the pack in most plate discipline metrics including just strikeout rate in general. They do have the 9th highest CSW% in the last 30 days, however. They should have 6 right-handed bats in the lineup which will help expand his arsenal, and around 6 targets for strikeouts in the lineup. With his workload expanding to 91 pitches in his last start, and his immense talent, grabbing this line at 5.5 is something I am more than willing to do.
*If you are placing this bet at FanDuel, save a step by clicking the link below. It will put Bryan Woo O5.5 strikeouts directly into your betslip on the app!*
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1U Alex Wood (SFG) under 15.5 outs recorded (-120) available at BetMGM sportsbook at time of initial post to Twitter. Playable to -135 odds.
Alex Wood has a tough matchup today. The San Diego Padres have been far better against left-handed pitching this season (112 wRC+) than right-handed pitching (96 wRC+), and over the last 30 days their numbers against southpaws are even better. With a 130 wRC+ in that span, and ranking 2nd in wOBA, 2nd in ISO, and 6th in BB%, the Padres have been dominating lefties. They have faced solid ones during this stretch as well, including MacKenzie Gore, Braxton Garrett, Jesus Luzardo, and even Shane McClanahan. Not only are they producing, but they are extremely patient, ranking 3rd in MLB at 3.99 pitches per plate appearance. The league average mark for P/PA is 3.91. San Diego's projected lineup has 6 batters averaging 4.00 or more P/PA this season including 4 at 4.15 or higher. Trent Grisham (4.15) and Ha-Seong Kim (4.50, league-leading mark) are typically the 8 and 9 hitters and having that type of patience at the bottom of the order is a luxury not many teams have. Their patience not only runs up the pitch count but can lead to walks (11.0% and 13.4% BB%'s respectively this season for them against LHP.) Getting on base for the Tatis Jr., Soto, Machado, Bogaerts quartet is a dangerous recipe.
In the last 30 days San Diego has the league's lowest chase rate at 27.9%. Their pitch selection is elite and they pounce on mistakes very well. Wood has struggled to generate chases this season, ranking just 9th percentile with his 23.5% rate. He was able to generate a 33.3% chase rate in his last start against the Dodgers, but Los Angeles is in a bit of a plate discipline down spell right now, chasing at the 9th highest rate in the last week. Their chase rate against Wood resulted in his most efficient outing of the season, finishing 5 scoreless innings of work in only 67 pitches without issuing a single walk. On the season, however, Wood has a career-low first pitch strike rate while walking 10.1% of the batters he has faced. Being limited to those 67 pitches is another element of this play. That was Wood's first start since coming off the IL with a hamstring issue. His last rehab start resulted in 3 innings across 53 pitches while facing 13 batters, not overly efficient. 53 pitches to 67 in his next one should put him in line for around 80-85 pitches today. That falls in line with his 2021 and 2022 averages of 84.4 and 86.1 pitches per start. His workload isn't particularly long to begin with, and last season he was even under this number in 13/26 starts without restriction. Last season he struggled the 3rd time through the order, allowing a .941 OPS and .326 AVG across 94 PA, and the Giants have a solid bullpen ready to relieve him. In the last 30 days San Francisco relievers rank 1st in FIP and 2nd in K-BB%. They were decently worked last night but have Jakob Junis available who typically covers multiple innings anyway.
1U Jake Irvin (WAS) under 3.5 strikeouts (+100) available at BetMGM sportsbook at time of inital post to Twitter. Playable to -125 odds.
Taking an under on a 3.5 strikeout prop can be scary, but I see a ton of value in this line. Jake Irvin is simply not a strikeout pitcher. The only time in his minor league career where he exceeded a K/9 of 8.70 (a mark he had in A+), was in AA where he reached 9.56 with the pre-treated AA balls they use that inflates every pitcher's strikeout numbers. Irvin's 4.79 ERA and 3.99 FIP across those 73.1 AA innings somehow elevated him to AAA to begin this season where he made only 5 starts (5.64 ERA, 5.26 FIP, 8.06 K/9.) Washington loved those numbers and decided he was ready for the big leagues. Through 8 starts Irvin has a 5.25 ERA, 5.39 FIP, 5.87 xFIP, 5.75 SIERA, and 3.0% K-BB (6.75 K/9.) Irvin is averaging 84.9 pitches and 20.75 batters faced per start, so his workload isn't high, and the vast majority of Washington's bullpen is rested so it shouldn't be pushed heavily.
Through 8 starts Irvin has covered this 3.5 mark 4 times, but his underlying strikeout numbers are about as bad as can be. His 4.9% swinging strike rate is nearly nonexistent, ranking 1st percentile in MLB, and he has posted a 5.6% swinging strike rate or lower in 7 of his 8 outings. Arizona, his matchup today, has a league-low 8.0% swinging strike rate as a team in the last 30 days. They chase at the 4th lowest rate and have the 2nd highest zone contact rate during that span as well. Against right-handed pitching during that timeframe Arizona has posted a strikeout rate of only 18.8%, the 2nd lowest mark behind only Cleveland. Irvin falls behind in counts with a 53.6% first pitch strike rate and fails to catch up with his 20.4% chase rate ranking 3rd percentile. His 93.6% zone contact rate allowed is among the highest in the league and against a high contact team like Arizona strikeouts will be hard to come by.
That is especially true when facing this Diamondbacks team for the 2nd time in the last 16 days. Irvin tosses 83 pitches to 21 batters in that last outing spanning 4 innings while recording only a single strikeout. Arizona drew 3 walks and got 5 hits against him on the way to 4 runs, 3 of which were earned to Irvin's record. A 3.6% swinging strike rate, 93.1% zone contact rate, and season high 92.3% chase contact rate were some of his underlying metrics in that game. Nick Ahmed is the biggest strikeout threat in the lineup and he's batting 8th. By biggest strikeout threat, he is at only 24.1% since the start of last season (83 PA) while producing a .387 wOBA and .197 ISO. He could be worse. Also, with Irvin having faced only 17 batters combined the 3rd time through the order in 8 starts, the likelihood or facing Ahmed for a 3rd time are very low.
*If you are placing this bet at FanDuel, save a step by clicking the link below. It will put Jake Irvin under 3.5 strikeouts directly into your betslip on the app!*
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1U Bryan Woo (SEA) over 5.5 strikeouts (-106) available at FanDuel sportsbooks at time of initial post to Twitter. Playable to -125 odds.
After 2 under bets, I will give you my favorite over on today's slate. Bryan Woo will make his 4th MLB start today after skipping AAA entirely. His debut fell on a day I wasn't able to bet due to attending a Wedding, but I am thankful for that as he got shelled by the Texas Rangers. Going from AA to a matchup against the Rangers is a strange way to call up a celebrated prospect, and I don't blame him for struggling in that spot. His stuff was fine in that game, generating a 12.8% swinging strike rate but the chases weren't there, and the runs were. He still struck out 4 Rangers but only lasted 2 innings of work. His next start was against the White Sox and he struck out 7 batters while seeing his pitch count hit 81. Woo followed up that strong outing by striking out 9 Los Angeles Angels and leading the entire slate in strikeouts on the day.
Through 3 starts his strikeout profile is about as good as can be. A 69.8% first pitch strike rate gets him ahead in counts early and often. He then draws chases at a 37.3% rate while allowing contact on those chases only 56.1% of the time. Woo wins inside the zone as well, allowing a zone contact rate of only 75.3% and generating whiffs overall at a 31.4% clip. His 16.0% swinging strike rate is very impressive, and he is able to generate those misses with his entire repertoire. His 4-seam fastball has been used over 52% of the time while generating a 32.3% whiff rate and 30.3% put away rate. The Yankees have the 6th highest strikeout rate this season against right-handed 4-seam fastballs. Woo has all of his strikeouts against left-handed batters by way of his fastball, but against right-handed batters his arsenal expands from 2 pitches to 3. He adds a sinker which generates a healthy number of looking strikes and moves more than his 4-seamer despite nearly identical velocity. His slider is also used against either handedness but against right-handed batters alone has generated a 45% whiff rate.
Woo's strikeout numbers should come as no surprise as he has always been a high-octane arm that puts away batters with a 3rd strike. Command was an issue in 2022 following Tommy John surgery but that worry has been alleviated with a 2.45 BB/9 in AA and 1.46 BB/9 so far in the majors. Overall, the Yankees are middle of the pack in most plate discipline metrics including just strikeout rate in general. They do have the 9th highest CSW% in the last 30 days, however. They should have 6 right-handed bats in the lineup which will help expand his arsenal, and around 6 targets for strikeouts in the lineup. With his workload expanding to 91 pitches in his last start, and his immense talent, grabbing this line at 5.5 is something I am more than willing to do.
*If you are placing this bet at FanDuel, save a step by clicking the link below. It will put Bryan Woo O5.5 strikeouts directly into your betslip on the app!*
https://t.co/0TcqsX3hPf
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