0.75U Randy Arozarena (TBR) over 1.5 hits+runs+RBI (-140) available at BetMGM sportsbook at time of publishing. Also fine with his total bases at plus money or Tampa Bay F5 TT O2.5 at -135 or better.
In my 3 years of sharing MLB bets I have only posted 5 official batter props. They have all been this season and they have all been under 0.5 strikeout bets on elite contact hitters in advantageous matchups. That being said, a new market is being offered this season that offers a bit of a buffer to the high variance hitting props that have been available. Being able to bet on a player's hits + runs + RBI combined is something that gives bettors a ton of outs to win their bet. DraftKings has offered this market all season to the best of my knowledge, but I hadn't invested much interest in it given book specificity. Now that BetMGM is offering this market, however, I am more willing to invest time into a prop type with multiple options for pricing. That optionality in books is important for this play as BetMGM is hanging a -140 price while DraftKings is at -175.
As for the play itself, Randy Arozarena is one of the more electric players in the sport and can cash this bet in a multitude of ways. For starters, his .297 batting average jumps to .303 when facing right-handed pitching and he gets a right-hander today in the struggling Jordan Lyles. Randy also gets to hit in his home ballpark today which has been amazing for him. The 28-year-old has posted a 1.008 OPS and .308 AVG in his home park, while also hitting .314 across his 138 daytime PA this season. In all of MLB Randy ranks 7th in RBI (54), 20th in runs (47), and 21st in hits (79.) He is averaging 2.6 HRRBI in his 40 home games, covering this 1.5 mark 25 times including 8 of his last 10 chances.
Arozarena is having his most disciplined season at the plate yet, walking at a 13.3% clip which ranks 91st percentile. While that is not good for total base bets, his speed (16 stolen base attempts this season) can put him in scoring range quickly, leaving that at-bat alive for a run. He could also walk a run in with the bases loaded, in theory. I didn't bet this for his ability to draw walks, however. Randy has extreme power and is very talented at driving runners in. He ranks 93rd percentile or better in barrel rate, xwOBA, and average exit velocity while sitting 89th percentile in hard hit rate and 86th percentile in xSLG. It isn't like he thrives off hunting a specific pitch either. Lyles uses a 6-pitch arsenal with a 4-seamer, sweeper, curveball, sinker, changeup, and cutter. Randy crushes 4-seamers (.310 BA/.463 wOBA), sweepers (.429 BA/.471 wOBA), sinkers (.289 BA/.403 wOBA), changeups (.367 BA/.440 wOBA), and cutters (.348 BA/.315 wOBA.) He struggles vs curveballs with a .208 BA and .296 wOBA but 1 pitch doesn't scare me away from this spot. Randy has also matched up against Lyles 10 times before. Albeit a small sample, it is nice seeing 3 hits with 2 home runs and 5 RBI in that sample.
Lyles has struggled against everyone this season, posting a 6.72 ERA and 5.61 FIP. His 14th percentile xSLG, 16th percentile barrel rate, and 35th percentile xBA are horrid marks while his swing and miss capabilities are nearly shot with a single-digit K-BB%. He is 0-11 while the Royals are 0-15 in his starts, and his 18 home runs allowed ranks tied as the league's 2nd worst mark. The opposing team has scored at least 4 runs in each of the last 14 starts he has made with an average of 6.92 scored during that stretch. The Rays aren't just an average offense either, ranking 8th in wOBA with a 117 wRC+ against right-handed pitching in the last 30 days. Wander Franco and Luke Raley return to the lineup today in front of Randy for solid RBI chances, and behind him is a more than capable group of bats to drive him in if needed. Kansas City's bullpen has also fallen apart in the last 30 days ranking 20th in xFIP, 26th in ERA, and 20th in K-BB%.
0.75U Randy Arozarena (TBR) over 1.5 hits+runs+RBI (-140) available at BetMGM sportsbook at time of publishing. Also fine with his total bases at plus money or Tampa Bay F5 TT O2.5 at -135 or better.
In my 3 years of sharing MLB bets I have only posted 5 official batter props. They have all been this season and they have all been under 0.5 strikeout bets on elite contact hitters in advantageous matchups. That being said, a new market is being offered this season that offers a bit of a buffer to the high variance hitting props that have been available. Being able to bet on a player's hits + runs + RBI combined is something that gives bettors a ton of outs to win their bet. DraftKings has offered this market all season to the best of my knowledge, but I hadn't invested much interest in it given book specificity. Now that BetMGM is offering this market, however, I am more willing to invest time into a prop type with multiple options for pricing. That optionality in books is important for this play as BetMGM is hanging a -140 price while DraftKings is at -175.
As for the play itself, Randy Arozarena is one of the more electric players in the sport and can cash this bet in a multitude of ways. For starters, his .297 batting average jumps to .303 when facing right-handed pitching and he gets a right-hander today in the struggling Jordan Lyles. Randy also gets to hit in his home ballpark today which has been amazing for him. The 28-year-old has posted a 1.008 OPS and .308 AVG in his home park, while also hitting .314 across his 138 daytime PA this season. In all of MLB Randy ranks 7th in RBI (54), 20th in runs (47), and 21st in hits (79.) He is averaging 2.6 HRRBI in his 40 home games, covering this 1.5 mark 25 times including 8 of his last 10 chances.
Arozarena is having his most disciplined season at the plate yet, walking at a 13.3% clip which ranks 91st percentile. While that is not good for total base bets, his speed (16 stolen base attempts this season) can put him in scoring range quickly, leaving that at-bat alive for a run. He could also walk a run in with the bases loaded, in theory. I didn't bet this for his ability to draw walks, however. Randy has extreme power and is very talented at driving runners in. He ranks 93rd percentile or better in barrel rate, xwOBA, and average exit velocity while sitting 89th percentile in hard hit rate and 86th percentile in xSLG. It isn't like he thrives off hunting a specific pitch either. Lyles uses a 6-pitch arsenal with a 4-seamer, sweeper, curveball, sinker, changeup, and cutter. Randy crushes 4-seamers (.310 BA/.463 wOBA), sweepers (.429 BA/.471 wOBA), sinkers (.289 BA/.403 wOBA), changeups (.367 BA/.440 wOBA), and cutters (.348 BA/.315 wOBA.) He struggles vs curveballs with a .208 BA and .296 wOBA but 1 pitch doesn't scare me away from this spot. Randy has also matched up against Lyles 10 times before. Albeit a small sample, it is nice seeing 3 hits with 2 home runs and 5 RBI in that sample.
Lyles has struggled against everyone this season, posting a 6.72 ERA and 5.61 FIP. His 14th percentile xSLG, 16th percentile barrel rate, and 35th percentile xBA are horrid marks while his swing and miss capabilities are nearly shot with a single-digit K-BB%. He is 0-11 while the Royals are 0-15 in his starts, and his 18 home runs allowed ranks tied as the league's 2nd worst mark. The opposing team has scored at least 4 runs in each of the last 14 starts he has made with an average of 6.92 scored during that stretch. The Rays aren't just an average offense either, ranking 8th in wOBA with a 117 wRC+ against right-handed pitching in the last 30 days. Wander Franco and Luke Raley return to the lineup today in front of Randy for solid RBI chances, and behind him is a more than capable group of bats to drive him in if needed. Kansas City's bullpen has also fallen apart in the last 30 days ranking 20th in xFIP, 26th in ERA, and 20th in K-BB%.
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