0.5U Baltimore Orioles ML (-145) available at BetMGM sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -155 odds.
Andrew Abbott is a prospect I am high on, and I even took his over 5.5 strikeouts in his MLB debut, cashing with his 6th strikeout coming past the 100-pitch mark. He began his career with 17.2 scoreless innings against the Brewers, Cardinals, and Astros, before a 10-strikeout game against the Rockies in his last outing. While is start has been impressive without doubt, Milwaukee is perhaps the league's worst offense against left-handed pitching, St. Louis is in a massive slump against lefties in the last 5 or 6 weeks, Houston was without Yordan Alvarez in their matchup, and Colorado rolled out a AAA roster with Austin Wynns even making an appearance. Even those poor Colorado bats were able to find 3 home runs against Abbott, they just weren't able to get anybody on base in front of those long balls to fully take advantage.
Abbott only made 7 starts at the AAA level before being called up. His strikeout numbers were fantastic but his first 3 starts at the MLB level have generated swinging strike rates of just 7.6%, 6.7%, and 4.8% before his massive game against Colorado. If the consistent swing-and-miss isn't there, then his entire profile as a pitcher changes. Abbott struggled with command at times in the minor leagues, walking 4.05 batters per 9 last year in AA and 3.29/9 in AAA this season. His low 26.5% chase rate is leading to a 9.8% BB% and the Orioles draw walks against southpaw pitchers at the 4th highest rate. Adley Rutschman, Anthony Santander, Gunnar Henderson, and Aaron Hicks are the prime walk candidates. Abbott also struggled with the home run ball in AAA, allowing at least 1 in 5 of his 7 starts with 8 total. His 44.3% hard-hit rate and 9.8%-barrel rate so far in the majors aren't encouraging signs. He throws his 4-seam fastball 52.8% of the time and Baltimore ranks 6th in wOBA and 8th in ISO against left-handed 4-seamers this season. His curveball is thrown next at 19.2% of the time and Baltimore ranks 6th in wOBA against left-handed curveballs. Overall, Abbott's .190 BABIP and 100% LOB% are bound to end and regress towards league average marks. His 1.14 ERA is shadowed by a 3,39 xERA and 4.65 SIERA. With his 42.6% fly ball rate and Ballpark Pal projected a 26% boost in home runs at Camden Yards, I expect his regression to begin today.
Tyler Wells has been amazing for Baltimore this season, and even better when pitching in front of his home crowd. The 6'8" right-hander has a 3.22 ERA (3.64 xERA, 3.76 SIERA) across his 86.2 IP and when at home his ERA drops to 2.52 across 50 IP. Wells has recorded 52 Ks to only 7 BB in those 50 innings, contributing to his league best 0.89 WHIP. An above average first pitch strike rate and chase rate paired with a below average chase contact rate allowed has resulted in a 20.6% K-BB%, the 15th best mark in MLB. His zone contact rate allowed is 2.9% below league average and his strikeout production has picked up of late with 6 or more punch outs in 7 of his last 8 starts and 57 Ks total in that span. Wells' xBA of .217 sits 78th percentile as well and limiting base runners is massive against the aggressive Reds. He continually puts his team in position to win, with Baltimore winning 10 of his 15 games and suffering 2 of the losses by only 1 run. With 2 or fewer earned runs allowed in 10 of 15 outings, and 3 or fewer in 12, Wells should be able to register a quality start for his club tonight.
Behind Wells is another edge for Baltimore in their bullpen. The Orioles bullpen ranks 5th in K-BB% and 1st in FIP this season as a unit while the Reds are 26th and 22nd in those metrics. Cincinnati's bullpen is also heavily taxed with 12.1 combined innings pitched from their last 4 starters. That includes just 2 innings of Brandon Williamson last night before a rain delay forced Fernando Cruz (30), Jake Wong (57) and Eduardo Salazar (34) into large workloads. Wong was a minor league call up that had an ERA over 10 this season in AAA. They are desperate for innings and even if Abbott is struggling in the early going, he may see 100 pitches. Felix Bautista had yesterday off while Yannier Cano has had 2 straight days off. Having the high leverage arms available will be massive in the later stages of this game. In the event of a rain delay the bullpen edge for Baltimore would be even further realized.
0.5U Baltimore Orioles ML (-145) available at BetMGM sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -155 odds.
Andrew Abbott is a prospect I am high on, and I even took his over 5.5 strikeouts in his MLB debut, cashing with his 6th strikeout coming past the 100-pitch mark. He began his career with 17.2 scoreless innings against the Brewers, Cardinals, and Astros, before a 10-strikeout game against the Rockies in his last outing. While is start has been impressive without doubt, Milwaukee is perhaps the league's worst offense against left-handed pitching, St. Louis is in a massive slump against lefties in the last 5 or 6 weeks, Houston was without Yordan Alvarez in their matchup, and Colorado rolled out a AAA roster with Austin Wynns even making an appearance. Even those poor Colorado bats were able to find 3 home runs against Abbott, they just weren't able to get anybody on base in front of those long balls to fully take advantage.
Abbott only made 7 starts at the AAA level before being called up. His strikeout numbers were fantastic but his first 3 starts at the MLB level have generated swinging strike rates of just 7.6%, 6.7%, and 4.8% before his massive game against Colorado. If the consistent swing-and-miss isn't there, then his entire profile as a pitcher changes. Abbott struggled with command at times in the minor leagues, walking 4.05 batters per 9 last year in AA and 3.29/9 in AAA this season. His low 26.5% chase rate is leading to a 9.8% BB% and the Orioles draw walks against southpaw pitchers at the 4th highest rate. Adley Rutschman, Anthony Santander, Gunnar Henderson, and Aaron Hicks are the prime walk candidates. Abbott also struggled with the home run ball in AAA, allowing at least 1 in 5 of his 7 starts with 8 total. His 44.3% hard-hit rate and 9.8%-barrel rate so far in the majors aren't encouraging signs. He throws his 4-seam fastball 52.8% of the time and Baltimore ranks 6th in wOBA and 8th in ISO against left-handed 4-seamers this season. His curveball is thrown next at 19.2% of the time and Baltimore ranks 6th in wOBA against left-handed curveballs. Overall, Abbott's .190 BABIP and 100% LOB% are bound to end and regress towards league average marks. His 1.14 ERA is shadowed by a 3,39 xERA and 4.65 SIERA. With his 42.6% fly ball rate and Ballpark Pal projected a 26% boost in home runs at Camden Yards, I expect his regression to begin today.
Tyler Wells has been amazing for Baltimore this season, and even better when pitching in front of his home crowd. The 6'8" right-hander has a 3.22 ERA (3.64 xERA, 3.76 SIERA) across his 86.2 IP and when at home his ERA drops to 2.52 across 50 IP. Wells has recorded 52 Ks to only 7 BB in those 50 innings, contributing to his league best 0.89 WHIP. An above average first pitch strike rate and chase rate paired with a below average chase contact rate allowed has resulted in a 20.6% K-BB%, the 15th best mark in MLB. His zone contact rate allowed is 2.9% below league average and his strikeout production has picked up of late with 6 or more punch outs in 7 of his last 8 starts and 57 Ks total in that span. Wells' xBA of .217 sits 78th percentile as well and limiting base runners is massive against the aggressive Reds. He continually puts his team in position to win, with Baltimore winning 10 of his 15 games and suffering 2 of the losses by only 1 run. With 2 or fewer earned runs allowed in 10 of 15 outings, and 3 or fewer in 12, Wells should be able to register a quality start for his club tonight.
Behind Wells is another edge for Baltimore in their bullpen. The Orioles bullpen ranks 5th in K-BB% and 1st in FIP this season as a unit while the Reds are 26th and 22nd in those metrics. Cincinnati's bullpen is also heavily taxed with 12.1 combined innings pitched from their last 4 starters. That includes just 2 innings of Brandon Williamson last night before a rain delay forced Fernando Cruz (30), Jake Wong (57) and Eduardo Salazar (34) into large workloads. Wong was a minor league call up that had an ERA over 10 this season in AAA. They are desperate for innings and even if Abbott is struggling in the early going, he may see 100 pitches. Felix Bautista had yesterday off while Yannier Cano has had 2 straight days off. Having the high leverage arms available will be massive in the later stages of this game. In the event of a rain delay the bullpen edge for Baltimore would be even further realized.
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