1U Pablo Lopez (MIN) over 5.5 strikeouts (-140) available at FanDuel sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -150 odds then would pivot to the 6.5 +125 line available at DraftKings.
Pablo Lopez has been a strikeout machine this season, recording 6 or more strikeouts in 14 of his 16 games pitched. He has 7 or more in 11 games, and 8 or more 9 times including each of his last 3 starts. Among qualified pitchers this season Lopez ranks 13th in FIP, 5th in SIERA, 5th in K/9, 4th in K-BB%, 6th in overall strike rate, 2nd in first pitch strike rate, and gets ahead 0-2 in counts at the 6th highest rate. Lopez ranks 96th percentile in chase rate and 91st percentile in swinging strike rate.
His career high CSW% ranks 76th percentile thanks to 4 pitches with at least 22 strikeouts recorded. This is what makes him so lethal, as the right-hander has a multitude of options to turn to. His 4-seamer (34.8% usage, 29.8% whiff, 22.4% put away), changeup (21.3% usage, 27.6% whiff, 22.5% put away), sweeper (20.5% usage, 37.6% whiff, 21.7% put away), and curveball (11.9% usage, 39.3% whiff, 34.9% put away) comprise his strikeout pitches while his sinker (11.4% usage, 12.6% whiff, 14.3% put away) is thrown mainly early in counts and always to RHB.
Baltimore ranks in the bottom 3rd of the league in K% against RHP over the entire season's sample but have lost some discipline at the plate in the last 30 days. In that span the Orioles have the 6th highest chase rate while just middle of the pack in chase contact rate. That is a worrisome trend against Lopez who is elite at drawing batters outside the zone and his 55.1% chase contact rate allowed is 3% lower than league average. Baltimore has the 11th highest swinging strike rate and 3rd highest CSW% across that 30-day sample.
With Lopez averaging over 100 pitches per start across his last 3 outings, and his strikeout numbers in elite form, grabbing this line at 5.5 is something I am more than willing to do. Given his high hit rates on alternate lines and his ability to pop off in any matchup, laddering his strikeouts may be a solid option, but for the sake of the official record I just need 6 Lopez Ks tonight. Good luck if tailing!
*If you are placing this bet at FanDuel, save a step by clicking the link below. It will put Pablo Lopez O5.5 strikeouts directly into your betslip on the app!*
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1U Pablo Lopez (MIN) over 5.5 strikeouts (-140) available at FanDuel sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -150 odds then would pivot to the 6.5 +125 line available at DraftKings.
Pablo Lopez has been a strikeout machine this season, recording 6 or more strikeouts in 14 of his 16 games pitched. He has 7 or more in 11 games, and 8 or more 9 times including each of his last 3 starts. Among qualified pitchers this season Lopez ranks 13th in FIP, 5th in SIERA, 5th in K/9, 4th in K-BB%, 6th in overall strike rate, 2nd in first pitch strike rate, and gets ahead 0-2 in counts at the 6th highest rate. Lopez ranks 96th percentile in chase rate and 91st percentile in swinging strike rate.
His career high CSW% ranks 76th percentile thanks to 4 pitches with at least 22 strikeouts recorded. This is what makes him so lethal, as the right-hander has a multitude of options to turn to. His 4-seamer (34.8% usage, 29.8% whiff, 22.4% put away), changeup (21.3% usage, 27.6% whiff, 22.5% put away), sweeper (20.5% usage, 37.6% whiff, 21.7% put away), and curveball (11.9% usage, 39.3% whiff, 34.9% put away) comprise his strikeout pitches while his sinker (11.4% usage, 12.6% whiff, 14.3% put away) is thrown mainly early in counts and always to RHB.
Baltimore ranks in the bottom 3rd of the league in K% against RHP over the entire season's sample but have lost some discipline at the plate in the last 30 days. In that span the Orioles have the 6th highest chase rate while just middle of the pack in chase contact rate. That is a worrisome trend against Lopez who is elite at drawing batters outside the zone and his 55.1% chase contact rate allowed is 3% lower than league average. Baltimore has the 11th highest swinging strike rate and 3rd highest CSW% across that 30-day sample.
With Lopez averaging over 100 pitches per start across his last 3 outings, and his strikeout numbers in elite form, grabbing this line at 5.5 is something I am more than willing to do. Given his high hit rates on alternate lines and his ability to pop off in any matchup, laddering his strikeouts may be a solid option, but for the sake of the official record I just need 6 Lopez Ks tonight. Good luck if tailing!
*If you are placing this bet at FanDuel, save a step by clicking the link below. It will put Pablo Lopez O5.5 strikeouts directly into your betslip on the app!*
https://t.co/c3mkKgzHDV
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