James Harden Under 7.5 Ast (+136 DK)
Harden has still continued to struggle getting assists without Kawhi Leonard on the court averaging 14.7 potential assists per game in 13 games without him this season, but in this series it has been 12 potential assists per game in two games without him. The Mavericks have mixed in some doubles to throw at Harden but mainly it has been a lot of drop coverage and going over screens to try and run him off the three-point line. He has made them pay from three, hitting 4+ in three of the four games so far, but last game has his lowest attempts game with only 5 three-point attempts. He has torched them from the midrange, shooting 10 of 12 from the field between 8 and 16 feet. He is still one of the better pullup shooters in the league and with the Mavericks running drop coverage and going over screens, if that ball handler defender (most likely Kyrie) is on his hip, it is pretty much an automatic bucket as he does a great job of leveraging his body to create space of a midrange shot. He likes getting the Kyrie matchup or Luka matchup as he gets aggressive similar to the old Rockets James Harden. 30% of his passes have gone to Paul George who is not being a catch and shoot player like during the regular season but back to being a shot creator as only 28% of his attempts have been catch and shoot. If we dive a little deeper into the stats, 56% of his shots have come from 3+ dribbles which typically means it will not count as an assists as most assists are within two dribbles. Even 36% of his attempts are when he holds onto the ball for 6+ seconds. Both players love their isolation playstyles and both teams in general. Harden is scoring off a postseason high this year of 39% pick and roll ball handler frequency with a ridiculous 1.47 points per possession which is also a league high this postseason. Isolation basketball does not create a lot of assists opportunities, especially when that is what the defense would rather give up. The assists come from help defense and kick outs but he has been so aggressive and had so many looks with not much help defense, which has turned into the old James Harden everyone loved to see. A lot of his assists have gone to Zubac off the pick and roll. In the second half, we seen more focus on blitzing Paul George and that turned into a second half of 5 attempts and 5 assists, and 7 points compared to the first half of 14 attempts, 3 assists and 26 points. James Harden on the other hand in the second half had 15 points on 8 attempts with 2 assists. Shutting down George is going to be key and should have a lot of potential assists. You will not be able to stop both Harden and George, but you can limit Harden three-point attempts and blitz George to try and shut him down, and this game plan was working as the Mavericks outscored the Clippers 62 to 50 in the second half.
Josh Green Under 4.5 Pts (-130 BET365)
Josh Green has been a liability on defense and got played off the court in the second half only playing 2 minutes. I mention this because he played 11 minutes in the first half. When he is the primary defender, he allows opponents to shoot 12 of 19 from the field. He typically rotates in for Derrick Jones Jr, but they relied heavily on him in the second half playing almost 21 of the 24 minutes. Derrick Jones’ defense is needed to help force the ball out of Paul George’s hands. In Derrick Jones 23 matchup minutes versus George, he’s held him to 7 of 17 shooting and 9 assist. 5 of those 9 assists came in Game 4. He was a key part in blitzing George. With Jones needed for defense, we should not see much of Green, especially considering his defense has been lacking along with shooting 3 of 10 in this series is not much help either offensively, which includes 1 of 6 from three, and that is where the Mavericks need the most help when Luka gets blitzed. Green is great energy for the team and great for pushing the pace, but that only gets you so far in pivotal games down the stretch. In games playing between 8 and 18 minutes, he’s gone under this prop in 7 of 8 games this season. He’s played over 20 minutes just once this series. A quote from Kidd that I got from Joey Mistretta who is a beat writer noted, "He's been great. Being able to knock down threes, being able to drive the ball... Then defensively we've asked him to guard everybody. He's doing that... We're going to need that throughout this series and we're going to need that on Wednesday." Look for the Mavericks to have a slightly tighter rotation tonight.
James Harden Under 7.5 Ast (+136 DK)
Harden has still continued to struggle getting assists without Kawhi Leonard on the court averaging 14.7 potential assists per game in 13 games without him this season, but in this series it has been 12 potential assists per game in two games without him. The Mavericks have mixed in some doubles to throw at Harden but mainly it has been a lot of drop coverage and going over screens to try and run him off the three-point line. He has made them pay from three, hitting 4+ in three of the four games so far, but last game has his lowest attempts game with only 5 three-point attempts. He has torched them from the midrange, shooting 10 of 12 from the field between 8 and 16 feet. He is still one of the better pullup shooters in the league and with the Mavericks running drop coverage and going over screens, if that ball handler defender (most likely Kyrie) is on his hip, it is pretty much an automatic bucket as he does a great job of leveraging his body to create space of a midrange shot. He likes getting the Kyrie matchup or Luka matchup as he gets aggressive similar to the old Rockets James Harden. 30% of his passes have gone to Paul George who is not being a catch and shoot player like during the regular season but back to being a shot creator as only 28% of his attempts have been catch and shoot. If we dive a little deeper into the stats, 56% of his shots have come from 3+ dribbles which typically means it will not count as an assists as most assists are within two dribbles. Even 36% of his attempts are when he holds onto the ball for 6+ seconds. Both players love their isolation playstyles and both teams in general. Harden is scoring off a postseason high this year of 39% pick and roll ball handler frequency with a ridiculous 1.47 points per possession which is also a league high this postseason. Isolation basketball does not create a lot of assists opportunities, especially when that is what the defense would rather give up. The assists come from help defense and kick outs but he has been so aggressive and had so many looks with not much help defense, which has turned into the old James Harden everyone loved to see. A lot of his assists have gone to Zubac off the pick and roll. In the second half, we seen more focus on blitzing Paul George and that turned into a second half of 5 attempts and 5 assists, and 7 points compared to the first half of 14 attempts, 3 assists and 26 points. James Harden on the other hand in the second half had 15 points on 8 attempts with 2 assists. Shutting down George is going to be key and should have a lot of potential assists. You will not be able to stop both Harden and George, but you can limit Harden three-point attempts and blitz George to try and shut him down, and this game plan was working as the Mavericks outscored the Clippers 62 to 50 in the second half.
Josh Green Under 4.5 Pts (-130 BET365)
Josh Green has been a liability on defense and got played off the court in the second half only playing 2 minutes. I mention this because he played 11 minutes in the first half. When he is the primary defender, he allows opponents to shoot 12 of 19 from the field. He typically rotates in for Derrick Jones Jr, but they relied heavily on him in the second half playing almost 21 of the 24 minutes. Derrick Jones’ defense is needed to help force the ball out of Paul George’s hands. In Derrick Jones 23 matchup minutes versus George, he’s held him to 7 of 17 shooting and 9 assist. 5 of those 9 assists came in Game 4. He was a key part in blitzing George. With Jones needed for defense, we should not see much of Green, especially considering his defense has been lacking along with shooting 3 of 10 in this series is not much help either offensively, which includes 1 of 6 from three, and that is where the Mavericks need the most help when Luka gets blitzed. Green is great energy for the team and great for pushing the pace, but that only gets you so far in pivotal games down the stretch. In games playing between 8 and 18 minutes, he’s gone under this prop in 7 of 8 games this season. He’s played over 20 minutes just once this series. A quote from Kidd that I got from Joey Mistretta who is a beat writer noted, "He's been great. Being able to knock down threes, being able to drive the ball... Then defensively we've asked him to guard everybody. He's doing that... We're going to need that throughout this series and we're going to need that on Wednesday." Look for the Mavericks to have a slightly tighter rotation tonight.
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