NBA: Nets v. Bucks Game Preview
The NBA is back and we see the Nets take on the Bucks tonight -- let's have a look at some scoring fundamentals to see what we can expect tonight in Milwaukee.
For those of you following me, you'll know that I like NBA over/unders even though they are tricky bets to get right consistently. Before you dive into an O/U bet on tonight's game, take a look at some interesting trends for both teams based on last season. Starting with some fundamentals based on last season's data, BK and the Bucks scored on average 117 points. BK gave up two more points, on average, 114, compared to the Bucks who gave up 112 points. The average total score for all of BK's games last season was 231. For the Bucks it was 229. Ok, now we have a general baseline of what to expect.
But time also matters and when those games are played throughout the season. As any fan knows, teams go through ups and downs, so developing a sense of time and performance is important. One interesting observation is that both teams start off the strongest at the beginning of the season, and that's when they score the most points, on average.
Below are the actual scores for both BK and the Bucks last season. You can see that the trend line for the team score is at its highest point at the beginning of the season and then trends downwards as the season goes on. For example, at the beginning of last season, both BK and the Bucks were trending to score about 122 points. By the end of the season that had dropped to 112 and 113, respectively. Not surprisingly, the average of those two extremes is reflected in our first chart above which shows the teams' average season scores of 117 --- 122 + 112 / 2 = ~117. So when you're betting the O/U is just as important as what the season numbers tell you.
Let's also take a look at how time impacts how many points each team gives up. Although the trend isn't as pronounced as it is in the team score chart above, we can still see a strong trend that shows both BK and the Bucks giving up the most points at the start of the season. There's a bunch of reasons for why this happens, for example, at the beginning of the season a team is less likely to know the best way to defend against an opponent. It could also be that teams are more focused on offensive strategy, and put effort into racking up points rather than preventing them. The modern NBA is also designed to see teams score more because that's part of what makes watching games exciting.
Regardless of the causes, we can use the information from these two charts to guide us in understanding whether we're likely to see a high scoring game. Based on our data so far, it looks like the best chances of a very high scoring game -- something above the average of both teams' -- is likely since we're at the start of the season.
Let's take a final look now at the total scores for the games each team played last season. A quick point of distinction, the total score simply takes BK and the Bucks's score for each of their games, and adds that to whatever opponent they played for that game. It's just a total but it's a chart that we're more informed about based on the graphs we saw above.
Not surprisingly, the total scores for both BK and the Bucks are highest at the beginning of the season. BK's total score was trending at 238 at the beginning of last season and at 236 for the Bucks. DraftKings has the O/U line currently set at 234 -- I'd say that's a tough one to crack but interestingly, you'll get better odds taking the over (at -105) than you will the under (at -115). Given the data we've seen and the strong trend that indicates both teams score (and allow) the most points at the beginning of the season, I'd consider taking a look at the over if you feel like throwing some money down and getting some decent value for that risk.
The NBA is back and we see the Nets take on the Bucks tonight -- let's have a look at some scoring fundamentals to see what we can expect tonight in Milwaukee.
For those of you following me, you'll know that I like NBA over/unders even though they are tricky bets to get right consistently. Before you dive into an O/U bet on tonight's game, take a look at some interesting trends for both teams based on last season. Starting with some fundamentals based on last season's data, BK and the Bucks scored on average 117 points. BK gave up two more points, on average, 114, compared to the Bucks who gave up 112 points. The average total score for all of BK's games last season was 231. For the Bucks it was 229. Ok, now we have a general baseline of what to expect.
But time also matters and when those games are played throughout the season. As any fan knows, teams go through ups and downs, so developing a sense of time and performance is important. One interesting observation is that both teams start off the strongest at the beginning of the season, and that's when they score the most points, on average.
Below are the actual scores for both BK and the Bucks last season. You can see that the trend line for the team score is at its highest point at the beginning of the season and then trends downwards as the season goes on. For example, at the beginning of last season, both BK and the Bucks were trending to score about 122 points. By the end of the season that had dropped to 112 and 113, respectively. Not surprisingly, the average of those two extremes is reflected in our first chart above which shows the teams' average season scores of 117 --- 122 + 112 / 2 = ~117. So when you're betting the O/U is just as important as what the season numbers tell you.
Let's also take a look at how time impacts how many points each team gives up. Although the trend isn't as pronounced as it is in the team score chart above, we can still see a strong trend that shows both BK and the Bucks giving up the most points at the start of the season. There's a bunch of reasons for why this happens, for example, at the beginning of the season a team is less likely to know the best way to defend against an opponent. It could also be that teams are more focused on offensive strategy, and put effort into racking up points rather than preventing them. The modern NBA is also designed to see teams score more because that's part of what makes watching games exciting.
Regardless of the causes, we can use the information from these two charts to guide us in understanding whether we're likely to see a high scoring game. Based on our data so far, it looks like the best chances of a very high scoring game -- something above the average of both teams' -- is likely since we're at the start of the season.
Let's take a final look now at the total scores for the games each team played last season. A quick point of distinction, the total score simply takes BK and the Bucks's score for each of their games, and adds that to whatever opponent they played for that game. It's just a total but it's a chart that we're more informed about based on the graphs we saw above.
Not surprisingly, the total scores for both BK and the Bucks are highest at the beginning of the season. BK's total score was trending at 238 at the beginning of last season and at 236 for the Bucks. DraftKings has the O/U line currently set at 234 -- I'd say that's a tough one to crack but interestingly, you'll get better odds taking the over (at -105) than you will the under (at -115). Given the data we've seen and the strong trend that indicates both teams score (and allow) the most points at the beginning of the season, I'd consider taking a look at the over if you feel like throwing some money down and getting some decent value for that risk.
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