1U Donovan Mitchell (CLE) over 26.5 points (-115) available at BetMGM Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to 27.5.
Donovan Mitchell has been outstanding in his debut season with the Cleveland Cavaliers. The guard is averaging career-high marks in MPG, FG%, 3P%, FT%, blocks, and most importantly for this prop, PPG at 28.4. Despite Darius Garland missing some time with an eye injury, the 2 playmakers have found a nice balance in their brief time together and they combine for one of the more lethal backcourts in the game. Mitchell has scored 27 or more points in 15 of his 22 games played this season including 11 of 17 with Garland in the lineup. 3 of those misses with DG were games in which Mitchell saw fewer than 27 minutes played due to blowout (averages over 36 MPG.) Last game against the Knicks Mitchell stayed under this number, landing on 23 points, but he shot just 8/22 including a season-worst 2-11 from deep. Despite being under this number in 3 of his last 4 outings this sets up as an opportune spot to back Mitchell in a prime time spot on TNT.
In games with Garland when seeing just 27 or more minutes on the floor Mitchell has covered this line in 11/14 games for an average of 30.8 PPG. That includes a game against these same Lakers when Mitchell scored an efficient 33 points 1 month ago to the day. Those 33 points came despite just a 1-7 performance from deep so while I don't expect another 13 FTA, positive regression in his 3-point game should help level that out (on year is shooting 42.1% from deep on 9.2 3PA/game.) The Lakers have been playing competitive basketball lately and with LeBron returning to Cleveland on TNT we should expect their full effort and a close-fought game. This is also a massive pace-up spot for the Cavs as they rank 29th in pace while the Lakers are 4th. More possessions is certainly a good thing for Mitchell, especially when considering the Lakers allow the 2nd most fast break points per game. Mitchell is a 79th percentile transition scorer while leading the team in transition possessions per game. Lakers do a solid job of defending PnR ball-handlers on an efficiency basis but still allow the 2nd most FGA from PnR ball-handlers and Mitchell ranks 5th in the NBA in FGA out of the PnR while ranking 94th percentile in efficiency.
Anthony Davis is playing out of his mind on both ends of the floor and should do a good job limiting the effectiveness of Evan Mobley and the other bigs. That should, in theory, solidify the floor of Mitchell's volume and we can expect 18-22+ FGA in this spot. Lakers play drop often, which exposes the middle of the lane and they allow the 4th most mid-range FGA on the 4th highest FG% as a result. Mitchell isn't necessarily a high-volume shooter from that range but is a true 3-level scorer with the ability to hit pull-ups and runners in the lane as well as get to the hole or step back behind the arc. Despite AD being a premier rim defender, Lakers are still allowing 51.8 PPG in the paint this year which ranks 7th worst. A 225-point total is healthy for a Cavaliers game and I expect the faster pace to suit Mitchell and his points prop well.
1U Donovan Mitchell (CLE) over 26.5 points (-115) available at BetMGM Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to 27.5.
Donovan Mitchell has been outstanding in his debut season with the Cleveland Cavaliers. The guard is averaging career-high marks in MPG, FG%, 3P%, FT%, blocks, and most importantly for this prop, PPG at 28.4. Despite Darius Garland missing some time with an eye injury, the 2 playmakers have found a nice balance in their brief time together and they combine for one of the more lethal backcourts in the game. Mitchell has scored 27 or more points in 15 of his 22 games played this season including 11 of 17 with Garland in the lineup. 3 of those misses with DG were games in which Mitchell saw fewer than 27 minutes played due to blowout (averages over 36 MPG.) Last game against the Knicks Mitchell stayed under this number, landing on 23 points, but he shot just 8/22 including a season-worst 2-11 from deep. Despite being under this number in 3 of his last 4 outings this sets up as an opportune spot to back Mitchell in a prime time spot on TNT.
In games with Garland when seeing just 27 or more minutes on the floor Mitchell has covered this line in 11/14 games for an average of 30.8 PPG. That includes a game against these same Lakers when Mitchell scored an efficient 33 points 1 month ago to the day. Those 33 points came despite just a 1-7 performance from deep so while I don't expect another 13 FTA, positive regression in his 3-point game should help level that out (on year is shooting 42.1% from deep on 9.2 3PA/game.) The Lakers have been playing competitive basketball lately and with LeBron returning to Cleveland on TNT we should expect their full effort and a close-fought game. This is also a massive pace-up spot for the Cavs as they rank 29th in pace while the Lakers are 4th. More possessions is certainly a good thing for Mitchell, especially when considering the Lakers allow the 2nd most fast break points per game. Mitchell is a 79th percentile transition scorer while leading the team in transition possessions per game. Lakers do a solid job of defending PnR ball-handlers on an efficiency basis but still allow the 2nd most FGA from PnR ball-handlers and Mitchell ranks 5th in the NBA in FGA out of the PnR while ranking 94th percentile in efficiency.
Anthony Davis is playing out of his mind on both ends of the floor and should do a good job limiting the effectiveness of Evan Mobley and the other bigs. That should, in theory, solidify the floor of Mitchell's volume and we can expect 18-22+ FGA in this spot. Lakers play drop often, which exposes the middle of the lane and they allow the 4th most mid-range FGA on the 4th highest FG% as a result. Mitchell isn't necessarily a high-volume shooter from that range but is a true 3-level scorer with the ability to hit pull-ups and runners in the lane as well as get to the hole or step back behind the arc. Despite AD being a premier rim defender, Lakers are still allowing 51.8 PPG in the paint this year which ranks 7th worst. A 225-point total is healthy for a Cavaliers game and I expect the faster pace to suit Mitchell and his points prop well.
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