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JSleeprStats
Member since June 03, 2022
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@JSleeprStats
NBA Props 4/7
Basketball
Original Content
JSleeprStats
Brice Sensabaugh Over 11.5 Pts (-110 DK)
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2 weeks ago
NBA LAC vs CLE Correlation Props 4/7
Basketball
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JSleeprStats
Last time Garland was without Mitchell he only took 6 field goal attempts, but the Jazz in that game went to go trap him, but only that but there were so many open shooters and easy cutting lanes to attack he literally did not need to shoot at all. This is a perfect spot for him to attack though because the only two teams that have been terrible against the three ball since the start of February is the Jazz and the Clippers. The Clippers are allowing the 5th most three-pointers made at the third highest percentage in the last 15 games. The Clippers rely on a lot of switch is the pick & roll but have defended it poorly lately and in turn they are giving up the 5th highest pullup three frequency and 4th most made in the past 10 games, which is Garland’s preferred shot selection. In the past 10 games, he’s taken slightly more pullup threes than pullup two’s, and in that time span the Clippers are allowing the 3rd fewest pullup two’s made, which can mean a bit of a tougher game for Caris LeVert who’s game is pullup two’s and getting to the rim. …
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2 weeks ago
NBA HOU vs MIA Correlation Props 4/5
Basketball
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JSleeprStats
Without Sengun, he’s performed well, but in the last three games he has not got the same usage. The difference between the first 9 games without Sengun and the last three is Cam Whitmore coming back. Whitmore has a team high 27.8% usage rate in the last three games which is the highest on the team, while Thompson is at 16.8% and averaging 8 attempts per game. In the previous nine games before this three-game stretch, Thompson had an 18.3% usage rate averaging 9.7 attempts per game, which includes a two-attempt game. In the games without Sengun while taking 9 or less field goal attempts, he’s gone under this prop in 5 of 6 games. Fast paced games that involve a lot of transition buckets is the environment he thrives in, but the Heat will be a problem for him, limiting shots at the rim, playing slow and allowing the third fewest fastbreak points since the all-star break. 27% of his points have come from in transition this season. Miami is allowing the fewest field goal attempts in the restricted area and that is where 71% of his attempts have come from in the past 12 games (since the Sengun …
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2 weeks ago
NBA SAC vs NYK Props 4/4
Basketball
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JSleeprStats
The Kings had a tough time defending Brunson last time around as he scored 42 points. They tried double teaming him most of the game and he still put up these numbers with only four free throw attempts. He does a good job of using screens using his speed to get by Sabonis when he tries to trap, as has many good driving guards have this season against the Kings. He can stop on a dime on pullups or change directions in a blink of an eye, all while being a good three level scorer, making him almost impossible to defend. The Kings don’t have a defender that can truly stay in front of him either. Their best bet is a mixture of Ellis and Fox defending him. Brunson was 9 of 12 on drives. The Kings have a problem with guys that can really use their speed off the pick & roll. Since Randle has been OUT, he’s been taking 20+ field goal attempts in 20 of 26 games. In games with 20+ field goal attempts, he’s over this line in 31 of 45 games this season. 30% of his points have come in the paint (non-restricted area) and …
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3 weeks ago
NBA SAC vs NYK Props 4/4
Basketball
Original Content
JSleeprStats
The Kings had a tough time defending Brunson last time around as he scored 42 points. They tried double teaming him most of the game and he still put up these numbers with only four free throw attempts. He does a good job of using screens using his speed to get by Sabonis when he tries to trap, as has many good driving guards have this season against the Kings. He can stop on a dime on pullups or change directions in a blink of an eye, all while being a good three level scorer, making him almost impossible to defend. The Kings don’t have a defender that can truly stay in front of him either. Their best bet is a mixture of Ellis and Fox defending him. Brunson was 9 of 12 on drives. The Kings have a problem with guys that can really use their speed off the pick & roll. Since Randle has been OUT, he’s been taking 20+ field goal attempts in 20 of 26 games. In games with 20+ field goal attempts, he’s over this line in 31 of 45 games this season. 30% of his points have come in the paint (non-restricted area) and …
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3 weeks ago
NBA Props 4/3
Basketball
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JSleeprStats
Mikal Bridges Under 18.5 Pts (-112 FD)
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3 weeks ago
NBA ORL vs NOP Props 4/3
Basketball
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These two teams have played only once this season, which resulted in a Magic win, but it was also the game where the Pelicans lost Brandon Ingram to a knee injury. I will not be expecting much of Jonas Valanciunas tonight as the Magic run a five-out offense, which surrounds the floor with shooters from positions one through five. This is like what the Celtics did the other day which resulted in a second half start from Larry Nance and a total of 18 minutes played from Valanciunas. He is simply too slow and flat footed to defend five-out offenses, which is why the Pelicans would rather play smaller with lengthy defenders.
Read more | 3 min read
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3 weeks ago
NBA DAL vs GSW Prop Breakdown 4/2
Basketball
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Watching the matchup back from a few weeks ago, the Warriors were very focused on taking away the scoring of Luka and Kyrie, forcing others to beat them, but unfortunately the Warriors did not have enough offense to pullup it off as they were without Steph Curry that night. They limited both players to 21 and 23 points, but both players had 9 and 10 assists. I believe the Warriors will come back with a similar game plan tonight. They did not want either player to step into uncontested pullup threes as the extra help off the pick & roll was always ready and stepping up, but this opens the paint for easy lobs and open threes as the Warriors have been very sloppy in their rotations for at least the past month. Dallas did not do a good job of executing from deep as they shot 6 of 27 from deep, but when open or wide open from three, they shot 8 of 25 from the field, including 7 of 18 when wide open (6+ feet of space).
Read more | 3 min read
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3 weeks ago
NBA LAC vs SAC Prop Breakdown 4/2
Basketball
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JSleeprStats
Analyzing the last matchup starting with the Clippers defense first, we see that they did not try to switch much and relied on man to man, but a lot of the times Zubac was in drop coverage but off the pick and roll he wouldn’t try and drop too far back, but just enough to give them the free throw line look while the defender guarding the ball handler was doing their best to be on their hip off the screen. A lot of time the Clippers executed this very poorly. Their were times guys like Fox and Monk would be able to pull off the switch and trying to get straight to the rim. Clippers did an awful job of defending the paint from driving guards. They did not play much help defense and don’t have someone that can match the speed of Fox, especially if he forces a switch to get to the rim. Murray can have a solid game here tonight as they struggled to go over screens whether it was on or off ball screens, and if he gets a decent looks, he will pull the trigger.
Read more | 3 min read
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3 weeks ago
NBA Props 4/1
Basketball
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JSleeprStats
Trey Murphy Under 16.5 Pts (-106 FD)
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3 weeks ago
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